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Thread: The Enigma that is Derek Carr

  1. #301
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    I think a rookie QB would get destroyed behind the Raiders OL. Maybe McDaniels can work some magic and get a good project QB in the later rounds. Brady was selected in the sixth round.

  2. #302

    Put it this way

    Quote Originally Posted by Vioraider View Post
    I don’t think for one second that they cut him without a guaranteed upgrade. Not going to throw in a rookie.
    We have tried the same thing for 9 years now. Coaches have changed. OL has changed. We got Carr an elite WR and paid a huge price to get him.

    Is Carr better than he was in 2016? How many times did Carr have the ball in his hands and a chance to win the game at the end, but did not get it done?

    The definition of insanity is to do the same thing and expect different results.

  3. #303
    So, who are you replacing him with that’s an upgrade? You won’t acknowledge anything he’s good at, so you might name anybody

  4. #304
    Quote Originally Posted by mstrbass2000 View Post
    well, the niners screwed up trading up to get a guy with basically 1 yr of experience as a starter, we would not make that same mistake hopefully and grab one of the top 3 qbs in the draft and let it ride on a rookie deal surrounded by supreme pieces all the while building a good defense
    Nothing is guaranteed. Just look at the highest drafted QB in the last ten years:
    2013 - E.J.Manuel (16th pick)
    2014 - Blake Bortles (3rd pick)
    2015 - Jameis Winston (1st pick)
    2016 - Jared Goff (1st pick)
    2017 - Mitchel Trubisky (2nd pick)
    2018 - Baker Mayfield (1st pick)
    2019 - Kyler Murray (1st pick)
    2020 - Joe Burrows (1st pick)
    2021 - Trevor Lawrence (1st pick)
    2022 - Kenny Pickett (20th pick)

    With the exception of Joe Burrows, I don't think I would want any of them over Carr. Would you? In order to pick a great QB either one has to be lucky or persistent. Even a good football mind can choose a bad QB.

  5. #305
    Quote Originally Posted by silver_ghost View Post
    Nothing is guaranteed. Just look at the highest drafted QB in the last ten years:
    2013 - E.J.Manuel (16th pick)
    2014 - Blake Bortles (3rd pick)
    2015 - Jameis Winston (1st pick)
    2016 - Jared Goff (1st pick)
    2017 - Mitchel Trubisky (2nd pick)
    2018 - Baker Mayfield (1st pick)
    2019 - Kyler Murray (1st pick)
    2020 - Joe Burrows (1st pick)
    2021 - Trevor Lawrence (1st pick)
    2022 - Kenny Pickett (20th pick)


    With the exception of Joe Burrows, I don't think I would want any of them over Carr. Would you? In order to pick a great QB either one has to be lucky or persistent. Even a good football mind can choose a bad QB.
    Its too early on Lawrence, Murry and Pickett. Bortles had a deep playoff run, Baker even won a playoff game. And you will notice teams gave these guys a shot and when it didn't give results they moved on. Raiders are 9 years into the failed experiment.

  6. #306
    You would have to look at the collection of top QBs taken each year rather than highest one. Raiders wouldn't be taking the highest drafted QB if they are even interested (I'm not a huge Carr fan and I think he's here to stay). QBs are busting at a lesser rate but teams are still trading up to make foolish picks like Trey Lance and Zach Wilson. Everything is screaming in their faces that these guys are not proven yet teams still convince themselves to take these types of guys. Every year QBs get over drafted because teams are desperate.

    2020 draft for QBs in Rounds 1 and 2:

    Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round. The Love pick was a luxury pick they thought they could get to sit for a couple of years and have him ready yet he's still not ready. Tua and Hurts took their lumps as they are more athletic QBs than pure passers but all of them except Love are pretty good and winning nowadays (Herbert is on the cusp and he's a tad overrated, imo).

    There are 4 QBs that our scouting would have to decide on there and avoid the Love pick. I would take two over Carr and if our offense was tailored to benefit running QBs then I would be ok with both Tua and Hurts over Carr.


    2021 Draft:

    Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones, Trask in the 2nd round to sit behind Tom Brady. Uhhhh, well, there are maybe 2 in this draft that I would talk myself into drafting if we had no QB at all between Mac Jones and Justin Fields. However, they aren't going to be better than Carr. I think if Fields continues to have his offense be tailored around his running then he could put up top 5 fantasy numbers but not sure how much winning he'll do.


    2019 Draft:

    Murray, Daniel Jones, Haskins, Drew Lock 2nd round. Jury's still out on Murray but he won rookie of the year. Nobody in this class would be better than Carr. Murray could possibly elevate to his level if his coach gets fired.
    Last edited by jgrange; 11-29-2022 at 12:37 PM.

  7. #307
    Quote Originally Posted by rabidraider View Post
    Its too early on Lawrence, Murry and Pickett. Bortles had a deep playoff run, Baker even won a playoff game. And you will notice teams gave these guys a shot and when it didn't give results they moved on. Raiders are 9 years into the failed experiment.
    Except for Burrows, all these guys could be available in trade & it won't take much to get them. Release Carr & pick one of them.

  8. #308
    Quote Originally Posted by silver_ghost View Post
    Except for Burrows, all these guys could be available in trade & it won't take much to get them. Release Carr & pick one of them.
    None are an upgrade. It sets the team back, NO WAY

  9. #309
    The first QB pick in the last 10 years' draft is deterministic which is why I used it to illustrate how much of a crapshoot the evaluation process is. Thus if fans think that we will draft a QB in the first round & he will turn out to be like Mahomes, Justin Herbert, etc, then they are wrong. It is entirely possible that the QB turns out inferior to Carr & then we have to try again. The question is whether the fan base has the patience for such an exercise or do we trade for an Aaron Rodgers & see if we can go deep into playoffs with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by jgrange View Post
    You would have to look at the collection of top QBs taken each year rather than highest one. Raiders wouldn't be taking the highest drafted QB if they are even interested (I'm not a huge Carr fan and I think he's here to stay). QBs are busting at a lesser rate but teams are still trading up to make foolish picks like Trey Lance and Zach Wilson. Everything is screaming in their faces that these guys are not proven yet teams still convince themselves to take these types of guys. Every year QBs get over drafted because teams are desperate.

    2020 draft for QBs in Rounds 1 and 2:

    Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round. The Love pick was a luxury pick they thought they could get to sit for a couple of years and have him ready yet he's still not ready. Tua and Hurts took their lumps as they are more athletic QBs than pure passers but all of them except Love are pretty good and winning nowadays (Herbert is on the cusp and he's a tad overrated, imo).

    There are 4 QBs that our scouting would have to decide on there and avoid the Love pick. I would take two over Carr and if our offense was tailored to benefit running QBs then I would be ok with both Tua and Hurts over Carr.


    2021 Draft:

    Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones, Trask in the 2nd round to sit behind Tom Brady. Uhhhh, well, there are maybe 2 in this draft that I would talk myself into drafting if we had no QB at all between Mac Jones and Justin Fields. However, they aren't going to be better than Carr. I think if Fields continues to have his offense be tailored around his running then he could put up top 5 fantasy numbers but not sure how much winning he'll do.


    2019 Draft:

    Murray, Daniel Jones, Haskins, Drew Lock 2nd round. Jury's still out on Murray but he won rookie of the year. Nobody in this class would be better than Carr. Murray could possibly elevate to his level if his coach gets fired.

  10. #310

    Status quo

    Quote Originally Posted by silver_ghost View Post
    The first QB pick in the last 10 years' draft is deterministic which is why I used it to illustrate how much of a crapshoot the evaluation process is. Thus if fans think that we will draft a QB in the first round & he will turn out to be like Mahomes, Justin Herbert, etc, then they are wrong. It is entirely possible that the QB turns out inferior to Carr & then we have to try again. The question is whether the fan base has the patience for such an exercise or do we trade for an Aaron Rodgers & see if we can go deep into playoffs with him?
    I do not see Mark Davis, Dave Ziegler or Josh McDaniels being happy with the status quo. I think that they will have a plan this off-season to swing for the fences. We need something to get us out of this mediocre funk. Since Carr has been with the Raiders, we have finished no higher than second in our division. That is nine years. More often, we have finished third in a four team division.

    We still have a mathematical chance this season to make the playoffs, but it requires us winning all remaining games but maybe one and every other team ahead of us losing a lot of games. Would 9-8 get us into the playoffs? Likely not. What about 10-7? Maybe, but not likely.

    We need change with this team and upgrades at a number of positions. We need great drafts, not drafts that whiff on first and second rounders. We have a good team in place to use our draft capital. This past year, our draft produced players who have contributed and started, even though we did not have a pick until the third round.

    Trade Carr if he will waive his no trade clause. Trade Waller, who is not available anyway. Use our draft picks, comp picks and cap savings to draft a no holds barred QB like Jalen Hurts to groom behind a steady veteran at a reasonable salary. We need players who can perform on our lines and in the secondary. Use cap cap savings to sign free agents at key positions and draft capital to fill in the holes. Rebuild the Raiders. Now.

    I would much rather lose and try than be mediocre for the next decade. Derek Carr is not getting any better. He is what he is. He is an above average QB between the 20s and a below average QB in the red zone. He lacks pocket awareness and processes his reads too slowly to be effective in the red zone. He can make every throw and has the athleticism to extend plays and run for first downs, but rarely does either.

    It is time to move on from Derek Carr.

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