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Thread: It's time to move on from Derek Carr

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by mstrbass2000 View Post
    id take herbert way over derek carr at least he runs/extends plays, at least herbert is a threat to run in a td. and is not afraid throws it deep with accuracy and makes incredible throws for chunks or tds, justin herbert is a cool cat he never panics unlike Mr derek carr
    I wanted Herbert coming out of the draft. But, if we go rookie we have to expect a couple year learning curve, and that's if we draft a great one. I see Carr's flaws, I just don't see anyone better except Rodgers. Watson is a problem child, Wilson doesn't do it for me. If we could get serious draft capitol for Carr, then move up and grab Pickett. Local kid from my area. But expect a wait IF the new QB is the real thing.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by rabidraider View Post
    I wanted Herbert coming out of the draft. But, if we go rookie we have to expect a couple year learning curve, and that's if we draft a great one. I see Carr's flaws, I just don't see anyone better except Rodgers. Watson is a problem child, Wilson doesn't do it for me. If we could get serious draft capitol for Carr, then move up and grab Pickett. Local kid from my area. But expect a wait IF the new QB is the real thing.
    wilson is an upgrade had a down yr this yr due to his finger and so is watson of course we would have to make sure his court issues r done with and the league must give us an answer before we made a trade for him but once all of that is done deshaun watson is a huge upgrade, rodgers is rodgers you make that move immediately if it can happen

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by raiderman41 View Post
    If you can't see it, I can't help you. Derek Carr is a "good" quarterback, but he's far from elite.

    Sure, he throws for a lot of yards, but he has terrible pocket awareness, rarely extends plays with his legs and when he extends plays he is more likely to throw the ball away or throw the ball into coverage than to create a big play down the field.

    In yesterday's game, we saw what an elite QB looks like. Joe Burrow is an elite QB. Carr passed for more yards than Burrow, but Burrow was more effective in the red zone because he is more effective creating plays with his legs.

    His TD pass into the end zone while running out of bounds was a thing of beauty. He knew where he was on the field. He extended the play and gave his receivers time to break open. He threw a dart while running a jumping that was deadly accurate. If the ball were six inches to the right or six inches to th left, the ball would not have been completed. He spotted the barely open receiver. If the ball had a little less velocity, the ball might have been intercepted. He got it done when it mattered the most.

    On the other hand, when Derek Carr scrambles, he lacks pocket awareness. Sure, he will extend a play every once in a while, teasing us to think he's an elite QB. His throw to Zay Zones earlier in the game for a TD was a great throw. The problem is that for every great throw, he crumbles under the slightest pressure, throws into double coverage or just throws the ball away. He is a good quarterback who lacks the instincts to take his game to the next level.

    The only way the Raiders will be consistent winners with Carr is if they surround him with an ELITE offensive line, elite receivers and an elite defense. In essence, this makes him a "game manager" type of quarterback, not one in the elite category. He's nowhere close to being a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, two elite QBs in our division. He's also nowhere close to being in the Joe Burrow category in our own conference. What does this mean? It means that we will be forever looking up in the standings at these teams with elite QBs unless our roster is far superior to those teams' rosters, because an elite QB can win consistently with an average or slightly average roster. Elite players elevate the play of those around them and give their teams a chance to win every game.

    Let's face it. The NFL is a passing league. The rules are designed to allow quarterbacks to throw for dozens of touchdowns in a single season. The rules are designed to make throwing the ball more efficiently than ever before. If you can't throw for 30-40 TDs in today's NFL you are an average, game-manager type of QB.

    A few weeks ago, I posted an analysis of Carr's play before his injury and compared it to his play the past four years. In his first three years in the league, he threw one TD pass for ever7 138 yards passing. In the past four years, he has thrown one TD pass for every 190 yards passing. Before his injury, he was one of the league's best at converting passing yards into TD passes. The past four years, he has been below average in terms of this same statistic. In fact, Mitchell Tribusky -- yes Mitchell Tribusky -- has been slightly better at turning passing yards into TD passes. This analysis was not an anomaly. This analysis was over three and four seasons, which provided enough data to show some meaningful trends. The trend is that Carr is simply not the same, aggressive, throw-the-ball-into-the-end zone quarterback he was before his injury. He plays scared.

    What I see in Derek Carr is a QB who can make every throw, but often does not see open receivers. On a sack play yesterday, Desean Jackson crossed the field in single coverage, with at least one step ahead of his defender. Carr had plenty of time to pass the ball to Jackson, but instead didn't even look his way. He was looking to his right at a covered receiver, held the ball a second too long and was sacked. This was a missed opportunity. A good pass by Carr and we kept the drive alive and had the ball near mid field. A great pass by Carr and we're looking at a TD. Instead, we punted the ball because Carr was sacked.

    Some will blame the offensive line for not holding up. But it was clear from the play design that Foster Moreau was supposed to keep the defender out for no more than a second and a half or two seconds, giving Carr time to hit the quit hitter to Jackson. Carr never looked his way. While some will blame Moreau for not keeping a DE off of Carr, I blame Carr. He had time to throw, but didn't even see an open receiver.

    This is a passing league. The QB is the most important player on the field. He is the leader. He has the ball in his hands every offensive play. He can either be great at passing the ball in the red zone, average at this, or even below average. Mahomes is great. Herbert is great. Carr is below average in the red zone. In today's NFL, the rush will come from different directions. A QB who identify pressure, side step it and buy one more second of time to give receivers time to get open will make big plays. A quarterback who can't will be sacked.

    The only way the Raiders should keep Carr is if he agrees to a team-friendly contract that allows them to sign top free agents at cornerback, offensive line and wide receiver. I'm thinking something in the $15 million a year range, because Carr was overpaid on his last contract if you consider his results in terms of wins and losses. We can get a good game manager for $15 million a year and surround him with a quality roster of receivers, offensive line and defense to cause turnovers.

    The cold hard fact is that the Raiders won more this year because their defense was more effective, more consistent than their offense. In yesterday's game, the Bengals had only six scoring drives, while the Raiders had five. This one-scoring-drive difference was made possible for the Bengals because our offense turned the ball over once, giving the Bengals the ball inside our 20 on a sack/fumble, and a terrible special teams play, coupled with ineffective offensive performance, gave the Bengals the ball a second time on our side of the field. Again, only one difference in scoring drives, even though our offense essentially gave the Bengals two of their six.


    We lost not because of our defense. We were kept in the game because of our defense, which gave our offense the ball back after a key stop late in the fourth quarter.

    In our five scoring drives, we scored only one TD. In the Bengals' six scoring drives, they scored two TDs. That was the difference in the game, plain and simple.

    We turned the ball over twice (both by Derek Carr), while the Bengals didn't turn the ball over at all. That was a reason for the difference.

    Derek Carr is a good guy, a great teammate and a good man; he's just not an elite QB. He's the type of guy I would be friends with off the field. He's just a good guy. He's just not an elite QB. He lacks instincts that set the elite apart from the good.

    If the Raiders can secure a high draft pick by trading Carr, which could allow them to select Kenny Pickett, the star, mobile, strong-armed QB out of Pittsburgh, they should do it. Some teams, like the Saints, will look at Carr and see that he would allow them to compete immediately, especially since the rest of their team is pretty darned good.

    If the Raiders can't secure a high draft pick (top 10) or a couple of picks (mid to late first rounder and a second rounder) for Carr, they might keep him and actually extend him -- but only if he agrees to a cap-friendly deal.

    The Raiders came a long way this season, a season of turmoil and distractions. Coach B righted the ship so to speak. Now it's time to get sometime to take us on the next leg of the journey -- a journey to becoming an elite franchise that wins consistently and decisively, while competing for division crowns, conference championships and even Super Bowls year in and year out.

    We can only do that with an elite roster and a good quarterback, or with an above average roster and an elite QB.

    Go Raiders.
    I couldnt have said it any better myself. With that said, Id wish Carr well on his journey; hes been a loyal servant.

  4. #24
    The main thing Carr needs post 2016 is a great line, not good, great. He cannot be worried about getting hit or his throws will be rushed. He needs a top 5 offensive line player at every position for him to flourish I believe. I don't think it matters if he has a true #1 receiver or not, he won't get the ball to him enough anyway.

  5. #25
    I hope you’re working on your next epic novel of a post to explain just how Derek Carr has singlehandedly held this team back. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m pretty sure you’re on record multiple times with that take already

  6. #26

    And yet

    Quote Originally Posted by Vioraider View Post
    I hope you’re working on your next epic novel of a post to explain just how Derek Carr has singlehandedly held this team back. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m pretty sure you’re on record multiple times with that take already
    We see the same stuff from Carr in a playoff game.

    On the INT on our final offensive play, Carr was not under pressure but forced the ball into tight, double coverage. No defender was close to Carr. He had time. If you watch the play, you see Waller running a delayed wheel route. By the time the ball arrived, Waller was wide open. If only Carr had waited one half second more. He did not have to throw that ball when he threw it.

    That is Derek Carr in a nutshell. Usually good. Rarely great. Often makes bad decisions. Can never seem to put a team away so games are always close.

    In a playoff game, two or three plays like that make a difference.

    Good guy. Good man. Good husband. Good teammate. Average to slightly above average in a league dominated by elite quarterbacks.

    The Raiders will never compete for division titles, conference crowns or Super Bowls with the status quo.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by raiderman41 View Post
    We see the same stuff from Carr in a playoff game.

    On the INT on our final offensive play, Carr was not under pressure but forced the ball into tight, double coverage. No defender was close to Carr. He had time. If you watch the play, you see Waller running a delayed wheel route. By the time the ball arrived, Waller was wide open. If only Carr had waited one half second more. He did not have to throw that ball when he threw it.

    That is Derek Carr in a nutshell. Usually good. Rarely great. Often makes bad decisions. Can never seem to put a team away so games are always close.

    In a playoff game, two or three plays like that make a difference.

    Good guy. Good man. Good husband. Good teammate. Average to slightly above average in a league dominated by elite quarterbacks.

    The Raiders will never compete for division titles, conference crowns or Super Bowls with the status quo.
    Yeah I know. Youve said this a hundred times. All Im saying is this, youve made your point over and over and over. Im starting to think that you want a new qb..

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by raiderman41 View Post
    We see the same stuff from Carr in a playoff game.

    On the INT on our final offensive play, Carr was not under pressure but forced the ball into tight, double coverage. No defender was close to Carr. He had time. If you watch the play, you see Waller running a delayed wheel route. By the time the ball arrived, Waller was wide open. If only Carr had waited one half second more. He did not have to throw that ball when he threw it.

    That is Derek Carr in a nutshell. Usually good. Rarely great. Often makes bad decisions. Can never seem to put a team away so games are always close.

    In a playoff game, two or three plays like that make a difference.

    Good guy. Good man. Good husband. Good teammate. Average to slightly above average in a league dominated by elite quarterbacks.

    The Raiders will never compete for division titles, conference crowns or Super Bowls with the status quo.
    I've been a defender of derek carr for yrs until this yr vs Washington when he chose to check down instead of hitting djax whom was wide open on a cross for a td, 2nd time djax is wide open for another td on a slant and derek carr throws another check down followed by djax being wide open on the sideline for a 1st down and out of bounce, instead derek carr throws to hunter renfro in the middle of the field and gets tackled costing us a time out, enough is enough I want to move on from derek carr whom is at best an avg to slightly above avg qb

    ps when kirk cousins is avg 35 tds a yr and derek carr is avg 25 tds we got a problem, when your QB Derek carr goes 4-17 in the redzone that's a problem, when your QB avg almost a fumble per game that's a problem did you know derek carr threw for 24 tds and 15 ints and had 14 fumbles with 6 lost that's means he was 24 tds and 21 turnovers that's a huge problem

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by mstrbass2000 View Post
    I've been a defender of derek carr for yrs until this yr vs Washington when he chose to check down instead of hitting djax whom was wide open on a cross for a td, 2nd time djax is wide open for another td on a slant and derek carr throws another check down followed by djax being wide open on the sideline for a 1st down and out of bounce, instead derek carr throws to hunter renfro in the middle of the field and gets tackled costing us a time out, enough is enough I want to move on from derek carr whom is at best an avg to slightly above avg qb

    ps when kirk cousins is avg 35 tds a yr and derek carr is avg 25 tds we got a problem, when your QB Derek carr goes 4-17 in the redzone that's a problem, when your QB avg almost a fumble per game that's a problem did you know derek carr threw for 24 tds and 15 ints and had 14 fumbles with 6 lost that's means he was 24 tds and 21 turnovers that's a huge problem
    You are absolutely right. The Carr supporters point to completion percentage and yards passed.

    The Carr realists and Carr detractors point to the win-loss record (pathetic), the turnovers (among the worst in the league), the lack of touchdown passes (well below average for quality veteran quarterbacks), and the missed opportunities in games (numerous).

    The ONLY way I can see us keeping Carr is offering him a long-term, cap friendly deal that allows us to add quality free agents on defense, the offensive line and at wide receiver.

    Would Carr take $15 million per year? This is what I would offer -- if I thought the best option were to keep him. That would free up another $10 million on average every year to add to the roster.

    With his win-loss record, his number of TDs, the types of plays he makes and misses, he is a "game manager" type of quarterback. He might be the best game manager quarterback available in the league right now, but he's a game manager. He is not an elite quarterback and does not deserve a contract in the $25 million range. He definitely does not deserve to be paid in the top 5 or 10 of NFL quarterbacks. No way.

    Justin Herbert is better. Joe Burrow is better. Patrick Mahomes is a lot better. Kyler Murray is better. And of course Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are better. There are about 10-15 teams who would gladly trade for Carr because he is an upgrade. These are the teams that are at the bottom of their divisions, the middle of their divisions without young quarterbacks with huge upsides.

    I can see a divorce of sorts coming this offseason if Carr and the Raiders have contract talks, especially if we add a new GM and coach who look at stats and plays on the field the way we do. We think he's worth $x; Carr and his agent think he's worth $x X 2. This may be how it will end for Derek Carr and the Raiders.

    Two plays in Saturday's game show exactly who Carr is and why he's not the answer.

    On the first play, Carr is sacked. The play is designed to get Desean Jackson one on one on a defender on a route crossing the field. Jackson breaks right in front of Carr, moving to the left. Moreau is blocking the right end and only needs to keep him out a second or two. Moreau engages and holds him off. Instead of looking at Jackson, Carr looks toa receiver on the right. He stares down the receiver. Jackson has a step on the defender. A good pass by Carr to Jackson would result in a long gainer, likely putting us in Bengals' territory. An accurate pass out in front of Jackson likely results in a score. Carr never looks his way. Carr is sacked after the right end blocked by Moreau breaks free. Jackson was open long before Carr was under pressure.

    The second pass is the play that ended the game for us, the interception. Carr is not under the least bit of pressure, throwing the ball into double coverage in the end zone. If he waited for even a split second, he would have seen Darren Waller breaking down the right sideline on a wheel route. An accurate pass along the right sideline of the end zone would have been difficult to defend, against a 6-6 receiver who is open by at least a couple of yards. Carr doesn't try to buy extra time. He unloads, the ball is intercepted and we lose the game.

    Was it all Carr's fault -- that we lost this playoff game? No. At times, he played very well. His pass to Zay Jones in tight coverage for a touchdown earlier in the game was a thing of beauty. Jones was open, but there was only a tight window to throw the ball into for the completion. Carr got the job done. On this play, that ended the game for us, Jones wasn't open. He was double covered, and the defenders were in a better position to make a play on the ball than Jones.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by mstrbass2000 View Post
    I've been a defender of derek carr for yrs until this yr vs Washington when he chose to check down instead of hitting djax whom was wide open on a cross for a td, 2nd time djax is wide open for another td on a slant and derek carr throws another check down followed by djax being wide open on the sideline for a 1st down and out of bounce, instead derek carr throws to hunter renfro in the middle of the field and gets tackled costing us a time out, enough is enough I want to move on from derek carr whom is at best an avg to slightly above avg qb

    ps when kirk cousins is avg 35 tds a yr and derek carr is avg 25 tds we got a problem, when your QB Derek carr goes 4-17 in the redzone that's a problem, when your QB avg almost a fumble per game that's a problem did you know derek carr threw for 24 tds and 15 ints and had 14 fumbles with 6 lost that's means he was 24 tds and 21 turnovers that's a huge problem
    I saw those same plays. I shook my head then. I continue shaking my head now. You don't lose to Washington or the Giants, not when you want to be a playoff team.

    If only we had won a couple of those games we should have won. We were the better team. In those seven losses, our Carr-led offense scored 90 points. The losses weren't on our defense.

    We lost to teams we should have beaten. With a couple more wins, we would have hosted the playoff game, instead of playing in cold Cincy, giving them home field advantage.

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