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Thread: It's time to move on from Derek Carr

  1. #1

    It's time to move on from Derek Carr

    If you can't see it, I can't help you. Derek Carr is a "good" quarterback, but he's far from elite.

    Sure, he throws for a lot of yards, but he has terrible pocket awareness, rarely extends plays with his legs and when he extends plays he is more likely to throw the ball away or throw the ball into coverage than to create a big play down the field.

    In yesterday's game, we saw what an elite QB looks like. Joe Burrow is an elite QB. Carr passed for more yards than Burrow, but Burrow was more effective in the red zone because he is more effective creating plays with his legs.

    His TD pass into the end zone while running out of bounds was a thing of beauty. He knew where he was on the field. He extended the play and gave his receivers time to break open. He threw a dart while running a jumping that was deadly accurate. If the ball were six inches to the right or six inches to th left, the ball would not have been completed. He spotted the barely open receiver. If the ball had a little less velocity, the ball might have been intercepted. He got it done when it mattered the most.

    On the other hand, when Derek Carr scrambles, he lacks pocket awareness. Sure, he will extend a play every once in a while, teasing us to think he's an elite QB. His throw to Zay Zones earlier in the game for a TD was a great throw. The problem is that for every great throw, he crumbles under the slightest pressure, throws into double coverage or just throws the ball away. He is a good quarterback who lacks the instincts to take his game to the next level.

    The only way the Raiders will be consistent winners with Carr is if they surround him with an ELITE offensive line, elite receivers and an elite defense. In essence, this makes him a "game manager" type of quarterback, not one in the elite category. He's nowhere close to being a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, two elite QBs in our division. He's also nowhere close to being in the Joe Burrow category in our own conference. What does this mean? It means that we will be forever looking up in the standings at these teams with elite QBs unless our roster is far superior to those teams' rosters, because an elite QB can win consistently with an average or slightly average roster. Elite players elevate the play of those around them and give their teams a chance to win every game.

    Let's face it. The NFL is a passing league. The rules are designed to allow quarterbacks to throw for dozens of touchdowns in a single season. The rules are designed to make throwing the ball more efficiently than ever before. If you can't throw for 30-40 TDs in today's NFL you are an average, game-manager type of QB.

    A few weeks ago, I posted an analysis of Carr's play before his injury and compared it to his play the past four years. In his first three years in the league, he threw one TD pass for ever7 138 yards passing. In the past four years, he has thrown one TD pass for every 190 yards passing. Before his injury, he was one of the league's best at converting passing yards into TD passes. The past four years, he has been below average in terms of this same statistic. In fact, Mitchell Tribusky -- yes Mitchell Tribusky -- has been slightly better at turning passing yards into TD passes. This analysis was not an anomaly. This analysis was over three and four seasons, which provided enough data to show some meaningful trends. The trend is that Carr is simply not the same, aggressive, throw-the-ball-into-the-end zone quarterback he was before his injury. He plays scared.

    What I see in Derek Carr is a QB who can make every throw, but often does not see open receivers. On a sack play yesterday, Desean Jackson crossed the field in single coverage, with at least one step ahead of his defender. Carr had plenty of time to pass the ball to Jackson, but instead didn't even look his way. He was looking to his right at a covered receiver, held the ball a second too long and was sacked. This was a missed opportunity. A good pass by Carr and we kept the drive alive and had the ball near mid field. A great pass by Carr and we're looking at a TD. Instead, we punted the ball because Carr was sacked.

    Some will blame the offensive line for not holding up. But it was clear from the play design that Foster Moreau was supposed to keep the defender out for no more than a second and a half or two seconds, giving Carr time to hit the quit hitter to Jackson. Carr never looked his way. While some will blame Moreau for not keeping a DE off of Carr, I blame Carr. He had time to throw, but didn't even see an open receiver.

    This is a passing league. The QB is the most important player on the field. He is the leader. He has the ball in his hands every offensive play. He can either be great at passing the ball in the red zone, average at this, or even below average. Mahomes is great. Herbert is great. Carr is below average in the red zone. In today's NFL, the rush will come from different directions. A QB who identify pressure, side step it and buy one more second of time to give receivers time to get open will make big plays. A quarterback who can't will be sacked.

    The only way the Raiders should keep Carr is if he agrees to a team-friendly contract that allows them to sign top free agents at cornerback, offensive line and wide receiver. I'm thinking something in the $15 million a year range, because Carr was overpaid on his last contract if you consider his results in terms of wins and losses. We can get a good game manager for $15 million a year and surround him with a quality roster of receivers, offensive line and defense to cause turnovers.

    The cold hard fact is that the Raiders won more this year because their defense was more effective, more consistent than their offense. In yesterday's game, the Bengals had only six scoring drives, while the Raiders had five. This one-scoring-drive difference was made possible for the Bengals because our offense turned the ball over once, giving the Bengals the ball inside our 20 on a sack/fumble, and a terrible special teams play, coupled with ineffective offensive performance, gave the Bengals the ball a second time on our side of the field. Again, only one difference in scoring drives, even though our offense essentially gave the Bengals two of their six.


    We lost not because of our defense. We were kept in the game because of our defense, which gave our offense the ball back after a key stop late in the fourth quarter.

    In our five scoring drives, we scored only one TD. In the Bengals' six scoring drives, they scored two TDs. That was the difference in the game, plain and simple.

    We turned the ball over twice (both by Derek Carr), while the Bengals didn't turn the ball over at all. That was a reason for the difference.

    Derek Carr is a good guy, a great teammate and a good man; he's just not an elite QB. He's the type of guy I would be friends with off the field. He's just a good guy. He's just not an elite QB. He lacks instincts that set the elite apart from the good.

    If the Raiders can secure a high draft pick by trading Carr, which could allow them to select Kenny Pickett, the star, mobile, strong-armed QB out of Pittsburgh, they should do it. Some teams, like the Saints, will look at Carr and see that he would allow them to compete immediately, especially since the rest of their team is pretty darned good.

    If the Raiders can't secure a high draft pick (top 10) or a couple of picks (mid to late first rounder and a second rounder) for Carr, they might keep him and actually extend him -- but only if he agrees to a cap-friendly deal.

    The Raiders came a long way this season, a season of turmoil and distractions. Coach B righted the ship so to speak. Now it's time to get sometime to take us on the next leg of the journey -- a journey to becoming an elite franchise that wins consistently and decisively, while competing for division crowns, conference championships and even Super Bowls year in and year out.

    We can only do that with an elite roster and a good quarterback, or with an above average roster and an elite QB.

    Go Raiders.
    Last edited by raiderman41; 01-16-2022 at 05:21 AM.

  2. #2
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    If Derek Carr with the raiders in 2022; then I
    think that be on Mark Davis wants to hang on to
    Derek Carr……

  3. #3
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    I want a new HC (Harbaugh). Let the new HC make the QB decision.

  4. #4
    I agree with that, but. ..

    If we extend Carr, we need a more cap-friendly deal that will allow us to create a stronger surrounding roster.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by raiderman41 View Post
    I agree with that, but. ..

    If we extend Carr, we need a more cap-friendly deal that will allow us to create a stronger surrounding roster.
    I agree with you. I think its time to look at another option at QB. I can live with him If thats the way they decide go, and extend him. Again agreeing with you, Derek seems like the type that would do he cap friendly, constant restructure to keep money free to compete.

  6. #6
    we have seen enough of derek carr already, time to trade him off for a kings ransom his value will never be higher now that he is a playoffs experienced qb with top 12- top8 stats but he will never throw for 30 tds and his turnover ratio is sky high this yr (ints/fumbles) sure he will get the yds buts it tds that win games, not fgs on top of that derek carr refuses to run for yds or tds hell he rarely extends plays its like a alarm hits after 3 sec and he either panic throws into coverage or dumps it too quickly never allowing his wrs to break open

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by raiderman41 View Post
    If you can't see it, I can't help you. Derek Carr is a "good" quarterback, but he's far from elite.

    Sure, he throws for a lot of yards, but he has terrible pocket awareness, rarely extends plays with his legs and when he extends plays he is more likely to throw the ball away or throw the ball into coverage than to create a big play down the field.

    In yesterday's game, we saw what an elite QB looks like. Joe Burrow is an elite QB. Carr passed for more yards than Burrow, but Burrow was more effective in the red zone because he is more effective creating plays with his legs.

    His TD pass into the end zone while running out of bounds was a thing of beauty. He knew where he was on the field. He extended the play and gave his receivers time to break open. He threw a dart while running a jumping that was deadly accurate. If the ball were six inches to the right or six inches to th left, the ball would not have been completed. He spotted the barely open receiver. If the ball had a little less velocity, the ball might have been intercepted. He got it done when it mattered the most.

    On the other hand, when Derek Carr scrambles, he lacks pocket awareness. Sure, he will extend a play every once in a while, teasing us to think he's an elite QB. His throw to Zay Zones earlier in the game for a TD was a great throw. The problem is that for every great throw, he crumbles under the slightest pressure, throws into double coverage or just throws the ball away. He is a good quarterback who lacks the instincts to take his game to the next level.

    The only way the Raiders will be consistent winners with Carr is if they surround him with an ELITE offensive line, elite receivers and an elite defense. In essence, this makes him a "game manager" type of quarterback, not one in the elite category. He's nowhere close to being a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, two elite QBs in our division. He's also nowhere close to being in the Joe Burrow category in our own conference. What does this mean? It means that we will be forever looking up in the standings at these teams with elite QBs unless our roster is far superior to those teams' rosters, because an elite QB can win consistently with an average or slightly average roster. Elite players elevate the play of those around them and give their teams a chance to win every game.

    Let's face it. The NFL is a passing league. The rules are designed to allow quarterbacks to throw for dozens of touchdowns in a single season. The rules are designed to make throwing the ball more efficiently than ever before. If you can't throw for 30-40 TDs in today's NFL you are an average, game-manager type of QB.

    A few weeks ago, I posted an analysis of Carr's play before his injury and compared it to his play the past four years. In his first three years in the league, he threw one TD pass for ever7 138 yards passing. In the past four years, he has thrown one TD pass for every 190 yards passing. Before his injury, he was one of the league's best at converting passing yards into TD passes. The past four years, he has been below average in terms of this same statistic. In fact, Mitchell Tribusky -- yes Mitchell Tribusky -- has been slightly better at turning passing yards into TD passes. This analysis was not an anomaly. This analysis was over three and four seasons, which provided enough data to show some meaningful trends. The trend is that Carr is simply not the same, aggressive, throw-the-ball-into-the-end zone quarterback he was before his injury. He plays scared.

    What I see in Derek Carr is a QB who can make every throw, but often does not see open receivers. On a sack play yesterday, Desean Jackson crossed the field in single coverage, with at least one step ahead of his defender. Carr had plenty of time to pass the ball to Jackson, but instead didn't even look his way. He was looking to his right at a covered receiver, held the ball a second too long and was sacked. This was a missed opportunity. A good pass by Carr and we kept the drive alive and had the ball near mid field. A great pass by Carr and we're looking at a TD. Instead, we punted the ball because Carr was sacked.

    Some will blame the offensive line for not holding up. But it was clear from the play design that Foster Moreau was supposed to keep the defender out for no more than a second and a half or two seconds, giving Carr time to hit the quit hitter to Jackson. Carr never looked his way. While some will blame Moreau for not keeping a DE off of Carr, I blame Carr. He had time to throw, but didn't even see an open receiver.

    This is a passing league. The QB is the most important player on the field. He is the leader. He has the ball in his hands every offensive play. He can either be great at passing the ball in the red zone, average at this, or even below average. Mahomes is great. Herbert is great. Carr is below average in the red zone. In today's NFL, the rush will come from different directions. A QB who identify pressure, side step it and buy one more second of time to give receivers time to get open will make big plays. A quarterback who can't will be sacked.

    The only way the Raiders should keep Carr is if he agrees to a team-friendly contract that allows them to sign top free agents at cornerback, offensive line and wide receiver. I'm thinking something in the $15 million a year range, because Carr was overpaid on his last contract if you consider his results in terms of wins and losses. We can get a good game manager for $15 million a year and surround him with a quality roster of receivers, offensive line and defense to cause turnovers.

    The cold hard fact is that the Raiders won more this year because their defense was more effective, more consistent than their offense. In yesterday's game, the Bengals had only six scoring drives, while the Raiders had five. This one-scoring-drive difference was made possible for the Bengals because our offense turned the ball over once, giving the Bengals the ball inside our 20 on a sack/fumble, and a terrible special teams play, coupled with ineffective offensive performance, gave the Bengals the ball a second time on our side of the field. Again, only one difference in scoring drives, even though our offense essentially gave the Bengals two of their six.


    We lost not because of our defense. We were kept in the game because of our defense, which gave our offense the ball back after a key stop late in the fourth quarter.

    In our five scoring drives, we scored only one TD. In the Bengals' six scoring drives, they scored two TDs. That was the difference in the game, plain and simple.

    We turned the ball over twice (both by Derek Carr), while the Bengals didn't turn the ball over at all. That was a reason for the difference.

    Derek Carr is a good guy, a great teammate and a good man; he's just not an elite QB. He's the type of guy I would be friends with off the field. He's just a good guy. He's just not an elite QB. He lacks instincts that set the elite apart from the good.

    If the Raiders can secure a high draft pick by trading Carr, which could allow them to select Kenny Pickett, the star, mobile, strong-armed QB out of Pittsburgh, they should do it. Some teams, like the Saints, will look at Carr and see that he would allow them to compete immediately, especially since the rest of their team is pretty darned good.

    If the Raiders can't secure a high draft pick (top 10) or a couple of picks (mid to late first rounder and a second rounder) for Carr, they might keep him and actually extend him -- but only if he agrees to a cap-friendly deal.

    The Raiders came a long way this season, a season of turmoil and distractions. Coach B righted the ship so to speak. Now it's time to get sometime to take us on the next leg of the journey -- a journey to becoming an elite franchise that wins consistently and decisively, while competing for division crowns, conference championships and even Super Bowls year in and year out.

    We can only do that with an elite roster and a good quarterback, or with an above average roster and an elite QB.

    Go Raiders.
    well written opinion, I agree 100% "its time to move on from derek carr his value will never be higher in a QB needy draft that lacks talent" I bet we could get 2 1st rd picks plus something for him now

  8. #8
    Senior Member RaiderNationPaul68's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mstrbass2000 View Post
    we have seen enough of derek carr already, time to trade him off for a kings ransom his value will never be higher now that he is a playoffs experienced qb with top 12- top8 stats but he will never throw for 30 tds and his turnover ratio is sky high this yr (ints/fumbles) sure he will get the yds buts it tds that win games, not fgs on top of that derek carr refuses to run for yds or tds hell he rarely extends plays its like a alarm hits after 3 sec and he either panic throws into coverage or dumps it too quickly never allowing his wrs to break open
    Will only get trade value, if he play for another team, he might just retire and come a minister, he said he never play for another team.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by RaiderNationPaul68 View Post
    Will only get trade value, if he play for another team, he might just retire and come a minister, he said he never play for another team.
    then let him become a minister, we free up 20 million if he retires and we keep his rights plus him saying and him doing are 2 different things,especially once the other team throw down a 2 00 million dollar deal with 130 up front, you really think he could turn away from 130 million,I dont

  10. #10
    Who would be the QB if Carr is traded or retires? A rookie means 2-3 years to see another run if your lucky. If we could get Rodgers then do it, otherwise better the devil you know and draft the future QB now.

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