First Round Mock Draft: The Top 10

[crizpynutz]

First Round Mock Draft: The Top 10
The NFL Entry Draft is just around the corner, who will your favorite team pick? Find out what could happen in this mock draft.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
By Jay Morano Raiderfans.net Staff Writer

The NFL Entry draft is just around the corner and the internet is littered with mock drafts. The next Mel Kiper, or Mike Mayock is out there, somewhere providing his analysis and making his draft predictions. What is a mock draft really? A mock draft is merely a simulation including predictions on the outcome of the actual draft that will take place sometime in the future. From a fan’s perspective, they can be very informative, and generally fun to take part in. Some actual NFL general managers will review many mock drafts in order to estimate where a particular player may be selected. The good mock drafts will provide analysis that supports their speculations.

Just for fun, I’ve done a mock draft for the first ten picks in the first round. I have little to no insider information, but with the internet, I can research and watch film on the players – not highlights, actual game film.

1. Miami Dolphins, Jake Long, OT Michigan

The Dolphins have a new man in charge, Bill Parcells and he holds the #1 selection in the draft. With a team that has as many needs as Miami, Parcells may like to trade down, however, we’ve learned in the past few drafts that the cost is often more than a team is willing to trade up for. The draft has little to offer in a guaranteed top choice making a trade down even more difficult for the Dolphins. They have a young quarterback in John Beck and a productive running game spearheaded by Ronnie Brown. Investing in an offensive lineman makes a lot of sense for Miami. Offensive lineman have a longer shelf life in the NFL than say, running back and this draft has a premier prospect at offensive tackle – Jake Long. Miami has very little on the offensive line, especially at tackle where Vernon Carey is about it from a talent perspective. Long was practically perfect in both the penalty and sack categories during his time at Michigan and will provide Miami with many years of top rated protection should he reach his potential.

2. St. Louis Rams, Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio State

With Jake Long off the board we can be assured that if the Rams keep this selection, they will go along the defensive line. Glenn Dorsey is the best prospect out there and the Rams seem to really want to make him their choice. Last year’s top pick for the Rams Adam Carricker made the transition to defensive tackle. The Rams as a team totaled only 31 sacks last season and Leonard Little is going to be 34 years old. Gholston is build much like Little at 6’3” and around 265 pounds. An athletic freak, Ghoston was timed in the sub-4.7 range in the 40-yard dash. A pure pass rusher than shouldn’t be a liability against the run, Gholston would give the Rams a much needed boost as an edge rusher and the best pure pass rusher in the draft. Consistency and durability will be a concern, but as arguably the best athletic specimen in the draft was the only player to beat Jake Long for a sack this past season.

3. Atlanta Falcons, Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU

The Falcons will give quarterback Matt Ryan a very long look, but in the end, new head coach Mike Smith will go with what he knows, defense. The Falcons hold three second round picks and can sit tight, or trade up to grab one of the other quarterbacks in the draft like Brian Brohm. Dorsey is a big, strong, powerful interior player and the Falcons have nearly as big a hole in the interior of the defensive line as they do along the offensive line and quarterback. A natural leader Dorsey has the intangibles a team like the Falcons who are trying to rebuild from scratch after the Mike Vick fiasco desperately need. Dorsey was at one time the top rated player in the entire draft until word of potential health risks began to hurt his stock. The Falcons will be ecstatic to be able to land him at this pick.

4. Oakland Raiders, Chris Long, DE Virginia

The expected pick will be Darren McFadden, however Al Davis will select the only player in this draft that would sway him from that course. Sedrick Ellis, Chris Long and Darren McFadden all figure into the Raiders discussions, but Long, the son of Hall of Fame Raider Howie Long, is just too good and fills a glaring need for Oakland as an edge player. With a non-stop motor, solid size and strength Long may not be the athletic specimen of McFadden or Gholston, but he’s no slouch in his own right. At 6’3” and around 278 pounds he was timed at 4.75 in the 40-yard dash – not too shabby. No player in the draft works as hard as Long at improving his game and possesses excellent technique and a powerful rush. He plays the run and the pass equally well totally 14 sacks as a senior in matching Gholston’s output for the year. McFadden would provide a home run threat on offense for young quarterback JaMarcus Russell to play with and if Long is gone, then he would be the likely choice.

5. Kansas City Chiefs, Derrick Harvey, DE Florida

The Chiefs want Jake Long, but there is very little chance that he falls to them at #5. The Chiefs have a few options open to them, not the least of which is trading down. Assuming they stay where they are the best option would be to reach for an offensive lineman like Ryan Clady or Branden Albert. Matt Ryan would be a solid pick here as well, however the Chiefs appear content to give Brodie Croyle another shot at the job. With Jared Allen all but gone (soon to be traded) they have a massive hole at defensive end and Harvey is the next best player at that position. He has good size and bulk with the ability to pack on a couple more pounds. A decent pass rusher who can play the run Harvey would fill in nicely on the edge for Herm Edwards. Harvey plays fast and is has a nasty attitude on the field and put up an impressive 17 tackles for a loss last year. With two productive years in a row at the collegiate level, he is a fairly safe pick. He was overpowered at times and may need to add some strength and improve on his technique in order to avoid that at the pro level, but the Chiefs could do a lot worse than Derrick Harvey.

6. New York Jets, Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas

The Jets may think Christmas comes early this Saturday when Run DMC falls into their laps. Potentially the best athlete and player in the draft the Jets get their man in McFadden. At 6’1” and 211 pounds McFadden timed in the 4.33 range for the 40-yard dash. A home run threat to score from anywhere on the field McFadden will provide the Jets offense with an explosiveness they have lacked for awhile now. McFadden is fast and more elusive than his size would lend itself to. He can be used as a weapon in the passing game and will be a compliment to incumbent Thomas Jones. The off-field issues won’t dissuade Mangini and the Jets one bit, however his lack of lateral speed and ball control issues may become a hindrance at the NFL level. Though he may not become a pure workhorse in NFL terms, as a tandem he’s a big play threat that is difficult to find in football.

7. New England Patriots, Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy

The Patriots will be upset that none of their most desired players falls to them, however they are the team that I would most expect to possibly trade up in the draft. Should the Patriots stand pat (pun intended) they’ll grab the best player they can that projects in their scheme. The Patriots have typically not spent big on the cornerback position and if they don’t have to, probably won’t do it again. Compared to the remaining player on the board, however, McKelvin makes the most sense. With good size and excellent speed McKelvin can provide help on special teams as well as in the secondary. An athlete that is a threat to score every time he touches the ball he may not start right away in New England, but as a natural cover corner and explosive return man he will provide the Patriots with youth and athletic ability they desperately need in the secondary.

8. Baltimore Ravens, Matt Ryan, QB Boston College

The Ravens can finally stop sweating as Ryan falls to them at #8. Fortunate that few teams above them had the ability to draft a QB the Ravens pick up the top rated player at the position in the draft. Steve McNair has retired and Kyle Boller has yet to earn the starting job even-though he’s been provided every opportunity. With good size and enough mobility to buy time in the pocket and throw on the run, Ryan is a prototypical pocket passer and natural born leader. Was a very productive player and is as hard a worker as anyone. A fierce competitor and a winner who doesn’t possess a rocket arm. Has been streaky with his accuracy throwing 19 interceptions last season but in the right system his ceiling is very high.

9. Cincinnati Bengals, Sedrick Ellis, DT USC

The Bengals brought in Antwan Odom to replace the departed Justin Smith and could look to fill any number of needs with this pick. Chad Johnson has declared his desire to be out of Cincinnati at any cost however, for financial reasons the Bengals have not yet made his wish come true. Devin Thomas will be tempting at this pick, but the Bengals have been porous on defense and need to solidify that side of the ball. Ellis is exactly the player they need and the Bengals should not hesitate to take him. At 6’0” and 309 pounds Sedrick possesses a quick first step and is a powerful interior player. A hard worker with the ability to shed blocks and take on the double team he can play either the under tackle or nose tackle position inside. Isn’t a huge player, but plays bigger than he is. At the pro level he may struggle holding his ground at nose tackle, but the Bengals will have flexibility to put him in the right position.

10. New Orleans Saints, Keith Rivers, OLB USC

The Saints will be actively looking to move up in the draft, however, if they are unable to do so, at #10 the can look to Rivers for an upgrade in their linebackers. The Saints have a formidable offense and Deuce McAllister has restructured his contract in order to come back to New Orleans. They have spent big on the secondary the last season or two and with McKelvin off the board, will look to improve on the linebacking core with the selection of Rivers. Rivers is a fantastic athlete that can play sideline-to-sideline and has terrific closing speed. Solid in coverage he’s a big hitter that can really lay the lumber. Rivers has had difficulty in shedding blockers but plays non-stop and works hard.

Well, that’s my top ten mock draft for all that it’s worth. Anything can happen on draft day so who knows how right I will be on my predictions. In reality I’ll get some right, and I’ll get some wrong. That Patriots or Saints could trade up and change the face of the draft completely. A sleeper may creep up into the top ten, or a team may feel differently about their needs than I do. The fun in the mock draft is the unpredictability and the unknown of what will happen. There’s nothing like talking football to get your juices flowing so enjoy the draft and remember, this is just one more step toward the start of the 2008 NFL football season.

References: NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAA, Fantasy Sports and more: CBSSports.com, NFL.com - Official Site of the National Football League

[silvernblack10]

Good stuff crisp!

[_gg_]

Great mock by this Jay Morano guy....whoever that guy is.

I'd love for us to take McFadden, but C.Long might be the 'safest' pick in the whole top 5.

Jake will get exposed (penalties). Dorsey has injury clouds (tho i think he'll be fine), McFadden has his off-field issues, Gholston is an animal (or workout warrior doubts).

I cannot see a bad side to C.Long that could make him a bust. Just not in that whole family for them t be busts.

Imo, McFadden or C.Long would be happy with and take a true run-stuffing NT in the draft elsewhere.

[HollandRobbie]

I would like to see us trading out of the 4th spot, for more picks...i would love to see us draft Rivers LB from USC. and then getting a sollid DT in the second round.

What ever happens if we end up with McF, Long or one of the DT's i'll be happy to.

[Mykle VanHausen]

I like Chris Long. Casserly and Charles what his name on NFL Net. see us passing on him for Mcfad or Gholston. Gholston's not a tremendous help against the run and Mcfaddden's a waste behind a system designed to eliminate the need for expensive as hell RBs.

What these the NFL Net guys are neglecting is Derrick Burgess' supposed grumblings. he's gonna want Freeney money if he returns to double digit status, especailly if he goes to Hawaii.

Having Chris Long would look pretty good if (when) things finally come to a head with Burgess.

The seemingly ideal 1st round for Oakland would be to see, LSU's Glenn Dorsey fall to 4. He's thought of as an impact player who could wreak havoc and steel what has been a soft white under belly in the center of their D.

Scenario: We trade UP for Glenn Dorsey (if only we'd won the coin toss!) we give them our 4th, Fabian and Lamont if need be.

A Gholston pass rushing machine only works if teams are stupid or HAVE to pass. Why would they do that if they can run like they have the last 4 years.

Just a thought...

[crizpynutz]

Originally Posted by _gg_

Great mock by this Jay Morano guy....whoever that guy is.

I'd love for us to take McFadden, but C.Long might be the 'safest' pick in the whole top 5.

Jake will get exposed (penalties). Dorsey has injury clouds (tho i think he'll be fine), McFadden has his off-field issues, Gholston is an animal (or workout warrior doubts).

I cannot see a bad side to C.Long that could make him a bust. Just not in that whole family for them t be busts.

Imo, McFadden or C.Long would be happy with and take a true run-stuffing NT in the draft elsewhere.

There are soooo many ways the draft could go in the top 10 this year. This is just one possibility of course. It's actually one of the more fun drafts because the Raiders could reallistically be looking at about 5 different possibilities that a case could be made for drafting:

C.Long
Gholston
McFadden
Ellis
Dorsey

Personally, Long makes a tad more sense to me than Gholston if Davis want to draft a pass rusher as he, as you said, has a heck of a lot less downside and still enough of an athlete to make Davis happy. McFadden....I mean, how could I not be happy with the pick. There are risks with him of course, but the upside of what he could do is huge. I just don't see Dorsey getting past the Rams or Falcons, he's the only one I don't see us getting a shot at.

[cat444]

i agree, if crist long is there he will be the pick but if long go to rams or falcons mccfaden will be the pick. just hope for long.

[RaiderInNY]

Greta job Jay. I hope that scenario comes to fruition.

[-=Epic=-]

this is the first mock draft to suggjest that Ghoulston would fall to the Ram's, but who cares we get C.Long in this mock

[S&B_BO34]

very nice write up crizpy.
I can say one thing for certain... this Saturday will be fun!
We will be landing a true impact player whether it be Chris Long, DMC, Gholston or possibly Dorsey and reaching with Ellis. Ellis IMO is going to be very good, but if at all possible I would like to trade down and get him within the top 7 and garner a few more picks (that is proving more difficult to do than to say though).
I think you pegged about 6-7 out of the top 10 though, we will see. Everyone enjoy this Saturday!

[Raider Ran]

Originally Posted by _gg_

Great mock by this Jay Morano guy....whoever that guy is.

Jay Moreno = Crizpynutz

[Raider Ran]

Interesting Mock bro..Very possibly will fall that way too. 3 days.