Palmer at this point in the season.... interesting ~Merged~

[ecnirp]

I like footballoustiders DYAR which gauges throws on a play by play basis. It also weights importance like QBR, but makes a td a td regardless if you up 7-0 or down 21-0 . Palmer rates 19th in this measure, which is pretty fair. Now that also doesnt mean he is the 19th best qb in the league. Remember there are so many factors that stats do not show. Are the WRS in the right place, do you have a run game, do you have a defense that can keep games close (eg how many 30 point games and 50 pass attempt games does russell wilson have to do), do your WRs catch the damn ball.

And by the way the answer is NO to most of those questions when it comes to the raiders.

Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers...last year had the three of the worst defenses in the NFL, no running game. Top 3 QBs in QBR.

Again, technically Carson was much better last year.

[r8derd]

Don't get me wrong, I am not a Carson Basher, I actually like him. Think he is a stand up guy, a leader in the locker room, and he does things the right way. I do have a problem with his continued interceptions at critical times. However, he has the MOST PASSING ATTEMPTS, so of course his numbers are going to be inflated. I look at his completion percentage, as a more telling stat.

[crizpynutz]

I have not and will not call anybody a name on here, I try not to make things personal on here

but to summarize why some of us think the way we do is this:

palmer was brought here to be the difference maker and he hasnt lived up to that expectation, you dont give a 1st and 2nd for a QB who needs every single thing to be perfect for him to contribute to the success of the team instead of being the driving catalyst, we can find that for far more cheaper and still have our draft picks

I'm looking at this very objectively, when palmer plays well, i'm right in the mix giving him props, its documented as much as ppl on here like to pretend they dont see it. The problem is he's inconsistent and makes poor decisions regularly which cost us games. We actually had to read a post where somebody completely swept palmer's horrible throw in the 4th quarter of last game under the rug. The pick 6 vs. cincy, the tampa bay game, the list goes on

the guy just does not deserve the praise he gets, he's not getting the job done, he just isn't

I think you are overstating slightly that he needs "every single thing to be perfect". Can we attribute the same thing to DMC? My only point in support of Palmer boils down to what most people here who have a differing opinion is, he has NO help. Nothing from the play calling which you have also said sucks and is inferior. He has no running game to take pressure off him. He has no consistent receiver this year. They are dropping balls and causing INT's more than they are picking up yards, first downs or TD's. His blocking has been average at best. Maybe not every single thing, but how something, anything?

He's not as good as his overall stats say, but he's not 26th based on a flawed QBR system either. As usual, IMO, it's someplace in the middle. What my eyes tell me is that Palmer has been playing well overall, but he has been far from elite and has made some key mistakes in critical situations. He has no help, but at times he hasn't helped himself either. Is/was he worth the draft picks? I'd say not entirely, no. We overpaid. I do believe he's made this team better than Campbell, Lienart, Pryor would, but he isn't what is going to push this team into the playoffs either. IMO, last year, Hue should've let the team essentially lose out because it's on Hue/Al/front office that they didn't get a better backup plan than Kyle F'ing Boller. I didn't buy last year as a legit playoff team so I wouldn't have gotten Palmer. That said, we did get him and overall he's played about average with a slight bump due to the horrendous circumstances he's dealing with. A middle of the round first and a TBD 2nd isn't a lot for a starting NFL QB, but it's more than we should've paid. Hue just wasn't willing to throw in the towel and hitch the wagon to Boller.

In short, he's neither as good as those who "love" what he's done blindly and he's not as bad as I've seen you and other state either - IMO.

[speedkills]

okay speedkills, have u ever thought to weigh EVERY team and not just your own?

do you think we are the only team that makes mistakes on the field?

weigh THAT in and the results will be virtually the same

every team suits up and plays by the same rules on sunday, no excuses.

LOL you don't watch much NFL do you. I can tell you that watching NFL games I see other teams that look much more like Pro teams than the raiders.

The **** hawks give up 17 points a game we give up 31.

ANd you want a real stat. Palmer has been hit second most times in the leagut at QB (despite the fact we have a WC offense that gets the ball out quick) Vick and Ponder are the only two that are close. Hard to win when you're on your back.

Finally, yes stats mean a bit. Palmer will probably throw for 4500 yards and 25 tds when its all said and done. Give me one QB who was a bum that did that.

Does he make mistakes? Yes, Is he an all pro ? No . However most here argue is far from the problem. Throw Pryor in there and have fun watching 10 for 25 120 yard stat lines and us out of the game with 3 minutes left int he first quarter.

[NoClapsPlease]

LOL you don't watch much NFL do you. I can tell you that watching NFL games I see other teams that look much more like Pro teams than the raiders.

The **** hawks give up 17 points a game we give up 31.

ANd you want a real stat. Palmer has been hit second most times in the leagut at QB (despite the fact we have a WC offense that gets the ball out quick) Vick and Ponder are the only two that are close. Hard to win when you're on your back.

Finally, yes stats mean a bit. Palmer will probably throw for 4500 yards and 25 tds when its all said and done. Give me one QB who was a bum that did that.

Does he make mistakes? Yes, Is he an all pro ? No . However most here argue is far from the problem. Throw Pryor in there and have fun watching 10 for 25 120 yard stat lines and us out of the game with 3 minutes left int he first quarter.

he's on his back because he's not able to improvise, when a QB with just a hint of mobility could make something happen in those situations where he is sacked, thats one of a few reasons why he doesnt fit this offense

4500 and 25 TDs is what he did in his last double digit losing season and low and behold, the very next year that same team went to the playoffs with a rookie QB

that doesnt make you wonder whats going on? even a little bit?

[NoClapsPlease]

I think you are overstating slightly that he needs "every single thing to be perfect". Can we attribute the same thing to DMC? My only point in support of Palmer boils down to what most people here who have a differing opinion is, he has NO help. Nothing from the play calling which you have also said sucks and is inferior. He has no running game to take pressure off him. He has no consistent receiver this year. They are dropping balls and causing INT's more than they are picking up yards, first downs or TD's. His blocking has been average at best. Maybe not every single thing, but how something, anything?

He's not as good as his overall stats say, but he's not 26th based on a flawed QBR system either. As usual, IMO, it's someplace in the middle. What my eyes tell me is that Palmer has been playing well overall, but he has been far from elite and has made some key mistakes in critical situations. He has no help, but at times he hasn't helped himself either. Is/was he worth the draft picks? I'd say not entirely, no. We overpaid. I do believe he's made this team better than Campbell, Lienart, Pryor would, but he isn't what is going to push this team into the playoffs either. IMO, last year, Hue should've let the team essentially lose out because it's on Hue/Al/front office that they didn't get a better backup plan than Kyle F'ing Boller. I didn't buy last year as a legit playoff team so I wouldn't have gotten Palmer. That said, we did get him and overall he's played about average with a slight bump due to the horrendous circumstances he's dealing with. A middle of the round first and a TBD 2nd isn't a lot for a starting NFL QB, but it's more than we should've paid. Hue just wasn't willing to throw in the towel and hitch the wagon to Boller.

In short, he's neither as good as those who "love" what he's done blindly and he's not as bad as I've seen you and other state either - IMO.

well lets put this in perspective

all i've said is the guy is an average QB

never said he sucked, never said he was garbage

and from reading your post, you pretty much echo my thoughts...just in a nicer "glass half full" kind of way while i look at it as half empty

[RAIDER_Dave]

Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers...last year had the three of the worst defenses in the NFL, no running game. Top 3 QBs in QBR.

Again, technically Carson was much better last year.

Good point. Carson finished #12 in QBR last year, and that included the debacle of his first couple games.

Is he really playing that much worse this year?

[ecnirp]

Good point. Carson finished #12 in QBR last year, and that included the debacle of his first couple games.

Is he really playing that much worse this year?

It seems to be that.

When we need those long time consuming drives that result in TDs.....we dont get them. Plus Carson has made some big mistakes late in games this year that hurts his "QBR". But I think Knapp is more to blame for Carson trouble than anyone..imo...but I'm sure I'll catch heat for that.

Carson got off the couch, with no Dmac (when DMac was actually good), no timing with the WRs...and still made plays. But again...the 3 and outs this year and the lack of "answering with a TD after just getting scored on" arent there...

I hated the picks by Carson last year..but yea I thought he played better (especially considering the circumstances).

[sa_dick_steele]

Isn't this kind of a meaningless debate at this point in time? With all of the current problems I just don't see Carson currently being one.

I'm not saying that he is the answer, at all. I look forward to the day when they move on from him. Face it, he is currently a stop gap. Once things get fixed around the QB then they need to look at a new QB. What move to do they make right now? Lienart? You sure? Wait! Pryor? They don't even know what he can do yet. Carson is far from Mr. Clutch and once the team is ready they should make that change, but they are not ready yet.

[Hungary87]

semi agree with this. palmer throws some dumb ass picks, some of the worst i've seen in recent years, but we can win with him if we had a better team.

I'm not trying to single out your post but rather reply to this comment that a few have made.

I've just seen Brees throw some bad ass picks last week - five in total actually. I've seen Rivers, Eli, Romo, Stafford and Ryan all throw WTF type picks. They all make them.

I don't even think Palmer is as good as those guys, maybe a notch below. But those guys do have better supporting casts. The only guys it seems can win by putting the team on their backs are Ben, Brady and PM. Maybe Brees....RG3 and Luck could enter that company at some point but I'm not convinced yet.

And I agree we can win with him. but he needs help.

[ecnirp]

Isn't this kind of a meaningless debate at this point in time? With all of the current problems I just don't see Carson currently being one.

I'm not saying that he is the answer, at all. I look forward to the day when they move on from him. Face it, he is currently a stop gap. Once things get fixed around the QB then they need to look at a new QB. What move to do they make right now? Lienart? You sure? Wait! Pryor? They don't even know what he can do yet. Carson is far from Mr. Clutch and once the team is ready they should make that change, but they are not ready yet.

I think most reasonable people would agree he's the best QB since Gannon and he's not "The Problem". Its just that he's not the solution (or at least we hoped to getting us a respectable team again....I hate to say it..but look how Andrew Luck has changed the Colts, RG3 the Redskins...but again..neither of those guys have Knapp as OC...)

Some people do go overboard with the bashing. I guess cause they fear he's another Jeff George.

[EasyRaider]

just an observation here but does anyone else think that when its Knapp calling the plays our offense is stagnant doesnt move anywhere and are always 3 and out but when I have seen Palmer calling the plays in no-huddle and changing plays at the line we seem to be able to move down field on mostly anyone this year?

[guydon]

QBR is meaningless as it doesn't take in to account dropped passed, neither does comp %. QBR also doesn't show the passes our WR's pop up in to the air that get picked, which I have seen them do at least 3 times this year. Yards, TD's, and INT's show production plain and simple. Again when I started this thread to show that for his situation Palmer is doing what he can. He is EASILY the best QB we have had since Gannon, I don't even know how that can be argued. My point is, he is a guy that is a great 3-4 year solution until we can get our franchise guy. Again my big comparison was between Matt Ryan and Palmer, being Matt is 11-1. So after we rebuild our ENTIRE defense, rebuild our O line to a ZBS, find a back that can run in that system, get a real possession WR , then we can look for a QB.

[RealRaider]

Yeah but apparently you didnt get the memo that now "garbage time" is anytime you are behind in the score and what qtr it is doesnt matter.... oh and stop worrying about stupid things like facts and stats the only real truth is a haters opinion lol.

Yes, and because our D couldn't stop a JV highschool team from putting up points it falls on Palmer because he can't score 56 points to win games by himself. Lets set aside the fact that we have no real run game or no receiver that could even start on another franchise, it's all on Palmer to win these damn games. Come on dude, quit padding those first half stats and win something.

Geesh.....

[NoClapsPlease]

QBR is meaningless as it doesn't take in to account dropped passed, neither does comp %. QBR also doesn't show the passes our WR's pop up in to the air that get picked, which I have seen them do at least 3 times this year. Yards, TD's, and INT's show production plain and simple. Again when I started this thread to show that for his situation Palmer is doing what he can. He is EASILY the best QB we have had since Gannon, I don't even know how that can be argued. My point is, he is a guy that is a great 3-4 year solution until we can get our franchise guy. Again my big comparison was between Matt Ryan and Palmer, being Matt is 11-1. So after we rebuild our ENTIRE defense, rebuild our O line to a ZBS, find a back that can run in that system, get a real possession WR , then we can look for a QB.

those issues youve listed are taken into account, its not purely off numbers, its a group of people watching the game play by play and scoring the QB based off things that include catchable passes, check downs versus air yardage, interceptions resulting in a score for another team in the next possession

there was an hour long introductory segment aired on ESPN the year before last that explained in full detail what the QBR acknowledges, i'd ask you to look into it a bit more

The ESPN video tracking has been useful in helping to separate credit in plays like these. We track overthrows, underthrows, dropped passes, defended passes and yards after the catch. The big part was taking this information and analyzing how much of it was related to the QB, the receivers and the blockers. Not surprisingly, pass protection is related mostly to the QB and the offensive line, but yards after the catch is more about what the receiver does. Statistical analysis was able to show this, and we divided credit based on those things.
Explaining the statistics behind the Total Quarterback Rating - ESPN