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[Raiderspy1]

The Way We Hear It — NFL draft

NFL invites seven players to New York; Leinart could slide

By Nolan Nawrocki
April 13, 2006

The NFL typically does not err in its selection of top talent to invite to the green room at the draft, not wanting to leave players sitting uncomfortably on camera as they slide. The league is generally very careful about whom it invites, but the past two years, a quarterback has been left sitting in agony, unexpectedly falling much further than even the NFL’s top brass would have imagined.

Expect the trend to continue at Radio City Music Hall in New York in several weeks. PFW has learned the NFL has officially extended invitations to seven players, listed in alphabetical order below:

Reggie Bush
Vernon Davis
D’Brickashaw Ferguson
A.J. Hawk
Matt Leinart
Mario Williams
Vince Young

Only one — the throwback Hawk — declined the invitation, preferring to spend the weekend with his family. The other six stand an excellent chance of being drafted in the top six, with the exception of one — Leinart.

The two-time national championship-winning quarterback fired agent Leigh Steinberg earlier this week and must wait five days before he can re-sign with a new agent, but with Creative Arts Agency already on board to represent Leinart’s marketing interests, sources say he will sign with a recent IMG defection, agent Tom Condon — who very recently took a position with CAA and has represented the top overall pick in the draft each of the last two years (Eli Manning, Alex Smith).

NFL insiders rationalize that the main reason for Leinart’s decision was that he sensed he was losing momentum in the draft after “a very mediocre pro day” and did not want to slide like Steinberg’s last top quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) did. But even Condon may not be able to work his magic to manipulate the draft.

Roethlisberger had hoped to be selected fourth overall by the Giants in 2004, but when they drafted Philip Rivers as part of a swap-and-trade with the Chargers, Big Ben fell all the way to Pittsburgh. Condon was able to effectively manipulate the draft in 2004 by letting it be known that Manning had no interest in playing for San Diego, which helped grease the skids for a last-second, on-the-clock trade.

Last year, Condon had no influence at the top. Many in the media believed the Niners were interested in Aaron Rodgers and believed he potentially could be the first overall draft pick. The reality was that the Niners’ decision makers had identified and settled on Smith as the draft’s top quarterback very early in the process. An added caveat is that team sources maintain that they would have still selected Smith even if Leinart had been available because of Smith's intelligence and better athletic ability. That refutes the widespread public sentiment that Leinart would have been the top quarterback drafted in 2005 had he declared a year ago.

After the Niners selected Smith, Rodgers lasted all the way until the 24th pick, where the Packers selected him. This year, it would appear on the surface that Leinart wouldn't fall very far, with an argument to be made that eight of the teams drafting in the top 10 could use a young quarterback — New Orleans (Drew Brees is coming off shoulder surgery); Tennessee (Steve McNair is aging and embattled in a contract dispute); New York Jets (Chad Pennington has had two shoulder surgeries and is not the player he once was, and Patrick Ramsey is unproven); Green Bay (Brett Favre is believed to be coming back, but no quarterback other than Aaron Rodgers is on the roster if he doesn’t); Oakland (Aaron Brooks is not a long-term solution); Detroit (Jon Kitna is 34 and Josh McCown still unproven); Buffalo (J.P. Losman has not earned the coaches’ confidence) and Arizona (Kurt Warner is not a long-term fixture).

However, a closer look at each team’s needs and discussions with sources in each building leads PFW to believe that no more than two will select a quarterback in the top 10. Some general managers maintain that two throwers will be taken in the top five, but PFW sees that scenario as very unlikely, barring any trades.

The way we hear it, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton made up his mind very early in the process that he wanted a veteran starting quarterback, not a rookie. Tennessee GM Floyd Reese strongly favors Vince Young, as do others of prominence there.

Leinart’s glimmering ray of hope resides at the No. 4 spot, but the way we hear it, new Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum and head coach Eric Mangini will stick to what they know best and adopt a Bill Belichick-esque inside-out approach to building the roster.

“(The Jets) would not have gone after Patrick Ramsey if they were interested in drafting a quarterback early,” one veteran evaluator said. “This is the time teams start playing mind games, and I think (the Jets) would like a lot of people to believe they are taking a quarterback so they could trade back.”

The Jets are in the process of completing a thorough evaluation process on the quarterbacks and are scheduled to meet with Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler, Leinart and Young all within a week of today.

“But you tell me this,” our inside source said, “why are they going to draft an average-armed quarterback (Leinart) with a history of injuries on his throwing arm when they already have one? And they will not draft Cutler that high, either. They do not have to. They will trade down if they want him, and I think they would like to keep stockpiling the picks.”

The question becomes: Will a team jump up to No. 4 to draft Leinart? Our sources say Green Bay absolutely will not draft a quarterback with its first pick. Al Davis drafted Arizona State QB Andrew Walter — at one time regarded as a first-round talent by some evaluators during his senior season — early in the third round a year ago. Our sources say the Raiders are looking for an impact player who can contribute immediately, which does not lend support to the notion that they would draft a quarterback.

Buffalo and Detroit both face win-now situations, with pressure coming from aging owner Ralph Wilson in Buffalo and Lions GM Matt Millen currently on his third coach in five years and feeling pressure to turn the corner immediately. He already made a mistake reaching for a quarterback in Joey Harrington in 2002, and he cannot afford to set himself back any further in the process, especially after signing two veteran free-agent quarterbacks.

That pushes the next real potential landing spot all the way to Arizona at No. 10. Denny Green has gone a few years without addressing the position through the draft, and our sources say if he has the opportunity to draft his future franchise QB, he will do so this year, allowing him time to lean under the wing of Warner — an excellent mentor.

Where the draft could become very interesting, with both Cutler and Leinart potentially available at No. 10, is in the Cardinals’ decision. PFW’s sources say the Cardinals currently favor Cutler. As a result, there is a very real possibility Leinart could be staring at a Roethlisberger scenario and fall into the double digits.

St. Louis and Cleveland are both eyeing defensive help and have done the most work on evaluating defenders, although it’s possible St. Louis could take a chance on Leinart. Baltimore QB Kyle Boller is entering his fourth season and has yet to show he can get the job done. For some reason, value seems to fall into the lap of Baltimore GM Ozzie Newsome every year.

Leinart has the intelligence to play right away if pressed into duty and could supply the spark to light a fire under Boller, potentially giving the Ravens a situation like the Chargers had two years ago with Brees and Rivers. If Leinart escapes the top 10, it’s very conceivable a team could begin thinking about trading up and more realistically do so, given that teams would not have to give up as much. Bottom line: It is a very realistic possibility that Leinart could slide out of the top 10.

Feedback from five evaluators at Leinart’s workout was mostly negative, with only one, coming from a team not in need of a quarterback, saying he was encouraged by what he saw.

“I think he worked out better than Tom Brady did when he was coming out, and he’s just as smart,” the Leinart fan said. “His workout wasn’t as choreographed. He showed good touch and threw well on the run. I was pleasantly surprised with his arm. He only threw five balls off target from what I charted, and that’s with receivers who were running the wrong routes.”

With all due respect to this player personnel director, it is important to remember where Brady went in the draft (sixth round) and to put in perspective that one of the finest teachers in the game — Bill Belichick — was personally showing Brady how to read coverages in his first year after QB coach Dick Rehbein passed away suddenly before the season. It is also important, when making any Brady comparison, to note his work ethic and competitive drive, which few in the game possess.

One of PFW’s most trusted sources, with an excellent knack for identifying talent, said:
“I don’t think anyone who was at his workout could say he had a great workout. He showed he has a very average arm. He was very nervous. He’s not a good foot athlete. If he goes to a place where the offensive line sucks, he might not make it through the year. Alex Smith was running for his life last year with no receivers and no line. USC didn’t face much competition, and when they played Fresno (State) and Texas, he struggled. I’m not going to beat a dead horse, but I’m not convinced he is going to be anything more than a decent NFL quarterback — a David Carr. (Leinart) is not an elite talent.”

Another source said: “If you just looked at the tape and didn’t know it were Matt Leinart working out, you wouldn’t have thought he was a first-round talent. His balls were floating. He was very uptight and tightly wound. He had a very flabby chest. And he is spoiled. He is a whiner.”

The best thing that could happen to Leinart, in our opinion, is that like Roethlisberger, he falls to a team with a great offensive line and some offensive weapons around him. Even if it means a substantial hit to the pocketbook on his first contract, he’ll stand a much better chance of earning a whopping second contract and continuing his winning ways if he enters the league in the right situation.

[OG BAMM BAMM]

nice read...

[throwback420]

[cheapshotartist]

[marrow]

that was a kick ass read bro let me hit you up with some rep for that one.

[SanJoRaider24]

LEt's hope their sources are right and Oakland doesn't draft a QB.

[Dark Knight01]

Nice....i was thinking the same thing...that one of these QB's may fall out of top ten.....Leinart would be the one...because of the huge upside the other two have. Interesting. I'm glad the Raiders probably won;t draft him.....we need Hawk, Huff or Bunkley!