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Thread: 2013: Prospect Film

  1. #421
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    RB Chris Thompson - FSU (vs. Clemson 2012)




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    DE Datone Jones & OLB Anthony Barr - UCLA (vs. Oregon State 2012)

    I'll be honest and say that I was watching QB Sean Mannion for the Beavs in this video more than the two "pass rushers". Very decisive and I like his pocket awareness.




  3. #423
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    That was a great 1st drive by Geno Smith v Texas.

    Really wanting Tavon Austin as well.

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    Ha, Bailey just option pitched it backwards to Austin and he scooted 68 yards on a kick-off.

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    Mid-Round RB I'd look at would be Mike Gillislee of Florida, who has racked up solid yards in his first year as the real primary runner. He displays one cut approach on stretch plays, likes to turn up-field (north-south) and doesn't shy from contact even though he's pretty diminutive at 5'10", 200 lbs.

    His size and durability will probably be the leading question marks and as to whether he could be a primary RB. As it were, he would probably start off as an situational RB in the NFL. But the more he carries like he did against the likes of LSU, he'll only bury that concern further down.

    He's fairly quick with burst through the hole. He has a natural lateral movement he can add to a regular stride (his stride can push laterally while still pushing vertically, able to run away from defenders). Every so often showcases a decent jump-cut. I don't know if anything superlative stands out, but he's solid.

    But I'd say his most compelling feature, most admirable trait, is that he seems to have good vision. He seems patient to the hole when need be, reads his blocks and can sense flow of the defense. And that alone bodes well for him with zone.

    Currently listed by CBS as a 5th round prospect:
    2013 RBs - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

    - Yet I suspect a strong Senior campaign and pre-draft workouts could elevate his stock. As it were, for a 5th, he's pretty intriguing.

    Code:
    2012 Game Log	        Rushing	                                                Receiving
    
    DATE	OPP	        RESULT  	ATT 	YDS 	AVG 	LNG 	TD 	REC 	YDS 	AVG 	LNG 	TD
    9/1	Bowling Green	W 27-14 	24 	148 	6.2 	38 	2 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	0
    9/8	@Texas A&M	W 20-17 	14 	83 	5.9 	24 	2 	1 	3 	3.0 	3 	0
    9/15	@Tennessee	W 37-20 	18 	115 	6.4 	45 	0 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	0
    9/22	Kentucky	W 38-0 	        13 	56 	4.3 	11 	1 	1 	11 	11.0 	11 	0
    10/6	LSU	        W 14-6 	        34 	146 	4.3 	12 	2 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	0
    Code:
    RUSHING Stats
    YR  TEAM 	ATT 	YDS 	AVG 	LNG 	TD
    
    2012	
    
        FLA
    
    	        103 	548 	5.3 	45 	7
    
    ...
    2011	
    
        FLA
    
    	        56 	328 	5.9 	60 	2
    
    ...
    2010	
    
        FLA
    
    	        58 	325 	5.6 	43 	7
    
    ...
    2009	
    
        FLA
    
    	        31 	267 	8.6 	52 	1
    v. LSU:



    CBS recap:
    LSU at Florida recap - CBSSports.com Video



    v. Texas A&M:


    v. BG:

    __

    Florida Player Profile:
    Gator Football Roster/Bios - GatorZone.com


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    Tavon Austin - sprinters speed:





    Al is drooling

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    Stedman Bailey shouldn't be underestimated or undervalued as well. He's a great downfield blocker - that can't be stressed enough with zone blocking.
    WVU v Texas:

    West Virginia Wins Showdown With Texas - ESPN Video - ESPN

    http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8473194
    DustInTheWind likes this.

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    West Virginia Air Raid offense:

    Understanding West Virginia's offense and how LSU will defend it - Grantland
    From 2011, but still applies:
    Holgorsen runs a version of the "Air Raid" offense ... the goal of the Air Raid was to "throw the ball short to people who score." The offense aimed to put "speed in space" in a way that could allow any quarterback to succeed.
    For example, one of the staples of the offense is the "Y-Cross," in which the slot or "Y" receiver runs a deep crossing route across the field. The goal is to flood the weak side of the formation. Many defenses rotate to take away the strong side of a formation because that's where the receivers are; as soon as they do that, Y-Cross can hit for a big play on the backside. The play has been adopted widely by NFL coaches
    __

    LONG READ, but essential if you want to understand why success breeds success.

    Also an insight as to why, IF Geno Smith becomes Reggie's 1st pick, why he needs to be married to a 21st century offense. Holgorsen, even Tony Franklin and even to an extent Chip Kelly should be contacted, perhaps also Chudzinski. Emphasis on Kelly and Holgorsen.

    Monday, 09 July 2012 , by : Chris Brown

    The Air Raid Offense: History, Evolution, Weirdness – From Mumme to Leach to Franklin to Holgorsen and Beyond | Smart Football
    Behind only the Mesh concept, Y-Cross is the route I think of most when I think of the classic Air Raid. While back then the offense didn’t feature a lot of vertical, over-the-top types of routes, Y-Cross was the main “big play” generator for them.

    So it was that offseason they introduced the Air Raid “shallow cross series,” which, for the high school teams that run the Air Raid, may be the most popular concept out of all of them.

    Mumme got the actual series from Mike Shanahan, then head coach of the Denver Broncos
    ...
    Dana Holgorsen: New Wave Deconstruction
    ...
    Holgorsen’s attack is at once the same but different, and I can only describe as a Derridean deconstruction of the Air Raid, rebuilt and repackaged — and packaged some more — into something that is both familiar and very different. Many of the key Air Raid plays are there for Dana — Y-Cross, Y-Corner, Y-Stick, All-Curl (Holgorsen has actually combined 96 All-Curl and 93 H-Wheel into the same play) – but others, like Mesh, are not.

    One of the major advances in Holgorsen’s offense beyond the traditional Airraid dropback pass game is his use of “packaged” concepts. Holgorsen combines run plays, screens, and quick passes all together in the same play.
    __

    Air raid offense - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Much like the west coast offense, the Air Raid uses short passes as an extension of or even replacement for the running game.
    The three biggest plays in the offensive scheme are what is known as the Shallow Cross, the Receiver Screen, and the Mesh series. The Shallow Cross was originally invented by Mike Shanahan ... west coast offense ...[then] 49ers.
    __

    Kelly:
    Combining quick passes and a shovel pass or shovel screen | Smart Football
    I recently discussed the evolution in combined or “packaged” plays, which involve combining quick passes, run plays, and screens to best take advantage of what ever evolving defenses throw at offenses.
    __

    Another site dedicated to Oregon FB, insightful stuff for offense and defense:

    Coach Chip Kelly Explains the Oregon Spread Offense – Fish Reports – FishDuck Oregon Ducks Football Analysis For The Casual Fan
    ...


    ...

  9. #429
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    Geno:
    By Chris Brown on October 2, 2012
    Dana Holgorsen and the maturation of West Virginia quarterback and Heisman Trophy favorite Geno Smith - Grantland
    Geno Smith became the most talked-about player in college football overnight, but the path to becoming a Heisman favorite has been a long one

  10. #430
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    Reading the stuff you have posted about the Holgorsen and Kelly offenses makes me wonder what Knapps playbook looks like. If you ask most Raider fan, it'd have only like 50 plays and not been updated since 1990.

    But doesn't this also mean that Geno's stats are misleading since this offense greatly bring out his strengths?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marzan View Post
    But doesn't this also mean that Geno's stats are misleading since this offense greatly bring out his strengths?
    I don't think so, I think it's a reflection of his proficiency. To some extent every QB is a "system" QB. It's sometimes impossible to separate scheme from skillset.

    Smith makes multiple pre-snap reads and post-snap reads. For example that TD pass to Tavon Austin was just one of many "option" routes that the WVU receivers run on any given play.

    Austin starts with short Curl but options to an extended Hitch which lead inside the hashes. It was kind-of a double move (combo route), with a small pump-fake from Smith, all within a short area radius. The UT LB slid out to cover the Curl and Austin extended the play.

    Geno had to read the LB who flashed blitz but he dropped to coverage and got overextended horizontally. Geno had that option since he read the Texas defender (#17 LB) was on single man coverage on the Y (slot, Austin), with Cover 2 safety help overtop which left separation in that middle ground, about 10 yards deep from the LOS.

    Smith had the easier play, easier route with the quick screen to the 2nd Slot receiver if he wanted that, (it was open) the receiver had room since the CB was playing off coverage on the shortside. But he choose not to do that, had he, it might have reflected something to the extent that he just runs a designed single read as opposed to pass "options." The shortside CB had to honor the GO route that pushed vertical from the X receiver. The outside Slot ran quick screen, it was short and open. The Y Slot tested middle/IN. On wideside the two receivers ended up being downfield blockers for Austin as he found the "wall" and went to open field.

    I don't know if the wideside receivers were running pick patterns for Austin, by design...

    It was a numbers advantage and Smith made the choice which yielded the higher chance at more yardage and it turned into a TD by Austin.
    ...here:



    From the article, last year vs LSU:
    September 24, 2011: Trailing 20-7 with 49 seconds left in the first half against second-ranked LSU, Smith stepped to the line. Given the choice between handing off the ball or throwing a screen pass to his left, Smith chose the latter.

    He took the snap and threw in the direction of his open receiver. The result was catastrophic.

    Coming on a blitz, LSU's Tyrann Mathieu leapt up, batted the ball straight into the air, caught it, and raced to the 1-yard line. LSU scored on the next play, and, despite Smith's 463 yards passing, the Mountaineers eventually lost, 47-21.

    "That's on Geno," Holgorsen would say of the play after the game. "If he thinks he can get it over him, he thinks he can get it over him … That's something Geno has to do a better job of."
    Smith's decision making is reflected in his stats - he hasn't thrown an INT this year in 204 attempts.

    I try to separate the stats for Smith from his tools. I try to independently observe his tools, rate them in some way and then compare him to other QBs past and present. I'm impressed with his decision making, that he knows where to put the ball with multiple targets. His efficiency is great. The fact that he doesn't toss INTs is as much his arm strength and ball placement as it is his reads.

    I don't see the same jump to the ball that I saw with Griffin III - less in terms of velocity. But that's just an observation, not necessarily a critique.

    It's not like Smith is lacking in the velocity or arm strength department, just not on the level of Griffin III or even Tannehill. Smith can "loft" the ball at times on the Vert passes. Griffin's plain of trajectory was more straightline. Geno's spin sometimes is on or off. Against Texas he had some nice rotation. Other times it has some wobble.

    The throwing motion is also different. Griffin would start fairly high with the arm motion, finish with a long follow-through - really snap his arm, generate torque and velocity. Geno, it's different. The elbow starts low, looks a bit like V. Young, he "pushes" the throw with the forearm. The elbow finishes higher in the follow-through than where it started, but ... it's just different.

    When Geno steps into his passes with his stride, it's less noticeable, mostly see it on the bucket throws. Sometimes the motion makes me think of a baseball motion moreso than a football QBs motion.

    (I don't know, just thinking outloud).

    From the article:
    Holgorsen's brand relies a bit more on running the ball to set up a vertical passing game.
    This is where some reminiscent skillset to RG3 exists. Griffin III was masterful as a Vertical downfield thrower while at Baylor. Smith, I believe is on his way, but not the same level.

    It's not for lack of reading a defense, Geno sees it all-right. In comparison, I never really trusted Newton's read. His decision making can be suspect at times. There are throws that Newton makes on pure brute strength, less precision. Likewise he can turn the ball over for forcing something. Geno seems to be more guarded as it pertains to reads and decision making.

    The most common concern about system quarterbacks is that college productivity doesn't translate to pro success, but for Smith, the plays he's running, albeit in a spread offense, are essentially NFL ones.

    The running game is based on the inside and outside zone, the passing plays are found in every NFL team's playbook in one form or another, and, this season in particular, Smith throws the ball vertically down the field.

    This is not the old dink-and-dunk Mike Leach offense — death by a thousand shallow crosses. Smith is making the safety move and hitting the deep post or corner for a touchdown, just like they do on Sundays.
    There is always going to be elements of base level talent advantages that big programs have over the smaller schools, this is magnified at the college level and it's tough when judging guys that play for the likes of Bama and LSU and such, when there is so much talent across the board.

    I will say that in terms of stats, like total yardage, yes the system and the players - especially Austin and Bailey, get huge amounts of YAC on fairly short developing routes and therefore Smith's total passing yardage numbers are very high.

    I think the scheme helps Smith, but it's undeniable that he's the engine which runs that offense. He distributes the ball on both Run and Pass. And it's clear he's a Pass-First QB.

    Geno isn't the same kind-of runner that Griffin is/was and it's not an emphasis of the WVU offense for him to have a ton of zone read or option read. Smith distributes the ball better than he does iso running. He can scramble though.

    And it's also clear that Griffin III is/was one of the all-time greats in terms of charisma, spokesmanship and intelligence. Geno is intelligent, passionate and works extremely hard - it's just hard to follow an act like Griffin III. Just an observation.

    Though I should add that I think Smith is every bit a student of the game and he's smart in relative terms - Griffin III is just rare. Smith is a definite 1st rounder, though he needs to be married to the right scheme - IMO. I think if you plug him into the plays that Knapp runs right now with Palmer, have him under center, it would be an awful waste of talent. Or maybe I should rephrase it, it wouldn't be maximizing his talents. Geno doesn't look like a dropback rhythm guy, his footwork, as it is, in the shotgun, needs work.

    If he's to have a great freshman campaign in the NFL like Newton and RG3, his offense better be a modern adaptation of either Air Raid or Spread. Which have elements and lineage to west coast offense. He's comfortable in the pocket, showed patience last night against Texas even as the rush was descending upon him, he has very good escapeability to extend plays, so that alone can cover up a lot of deficiencies in the offense that otherwise would derail success.

    In short, I don't think he's on the level of RG3 in terms of tools. He's obviously proficient in his system like Griffin is with his. He doesn't have the same kind of arm strength / velocity of Tannehill, nor the velocity and spin of Griffin. (edit: Though I'm starting to turn more positive on his "spin" / spiral or rotation after the Texas game). He doesn't have the cannon that Newton does nor is Smith the kind of option runner that either Newton, Griffin are. But he melds some V. Young and Big Ben, to me, with greater acumen, discipline and personality of those last two.
    DustInTheWind likes this.

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    CB Dee Milliner - Alabama (vs. Ole Miss 2012)




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    DT/NT Star Lotulelei - Utah (vs. USC 2012)




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    DE Tourek Williams - FIU (vs. Arkansas State 2012)




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    QB Matt Barkley - USC (vs. Utah 2012)




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