Posted 03-01-2008 at 01:42 AM by Attyla
Well, once again, Attyla and Associates have begun to evaluate the draft, and have come up with some interesting items. The question on topic today: The Oakland Raiders first round pick.
Of need in Oakland, there can be no question that the play of the defense was questionable last season in Oakland, and primarily the play of the line and safety. The secondary, a dominating force in the dismal 2006 campaign gave up big plays to subpar quarterbacks, and the free safety was again a hot topic. So, with that, Attyla and Associates look to the numbers to answer the question.
In 2007, the Raiders gave up an astonishing 4.8 yards per attempt to opposing teams RBs, the worst mark in the league. Did the Raiders match up against the best RB's in the league? Of the top 20 rushers, the Raiders only faced 6 of the list, and held two of them to fairly mediocre numbers. Were the Raiders plagued with injuries throughout the year? Other than one defensive lineman, the Raiders actually enjoyed a fairly injury free year.
So, how does giving up 4.8 yards per carry compare? Well, in the last 5 years, there have been only 5 teams that have either tied or surpassed that number, and three of them happened in one year. The Raiders were not fantastic overall against the rush during those years either, giving up 4.0 (twice) 4.6 (once) and 3.7 (once and ranking 7th that year) yards per carry. So, when we talk about giving up 4.8 yards per carry, this is the glaring number on defense, and it is the single most important number in regards to the draft.
And, that bears the question, why is that number the single most important number in regards to the draft? Simply put, the Raiders were either tied or ahead going into the final quarter of 5 of the games they lost last year. Teams that can run the ball against a tired defense can win games soley based on that factor alone, and quite often did. Added to that fact, the bottom 10 teams in yards allowed per rush had only one team make the playoffs, the Patriots.
So, given those factors, and the quality of the rushing attacks the Raiders will face in 2007, repeating the performance of last season will do nothing but create a repeat of 2007 for a primarily young and fast Oakland Raider team.
There are those who will argue that offensive line issues or the lack of a true star at running back create more need at those positions. Others will point to Schweigart as the most glaring hole. Still others will state that given the draft position the Raiders have, they should draft the best possible player, rather than address specific needs, and while Attyla and Associates agree that those concerns are real, the real issue is simply 4.8 yards per carry.
Given the state of the Raiders, not withstanding the issues in the front office, Attyla and Associates can only see a single course of action, and that is to address the interior defensive line. If Dorsey falls to the Raider pick, he is an easy selection. Ellis is also a good option, however overall size may play against him at the next level.
In looking at the players available, and given the multitude of selection options in the first four picks, it is almost assured the Raiders will be faced with one of these two players as an option. It is also apparent that if the Raiders do not trade down, one of these two players would be the right selection based on past performance and a simple number, 4.8
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