2003 MOCK DRAFT
Version #2 -- March 23, 2003
by Profootballtalk editor Mike Florio
You asked for it, you got it. It's our own effort to handicap the first round of the 2003 NFL Draft, based on the info we've been gathering and our own half-assed speculation regarding the direction in which the teams that hold one or more picks in the opening round might go.
Questions? Comments? Let us know.
PICK 1, BENGALS-TO-COWBOYS TRADE: Carson Palmer, USC.
There's an emerging buzz that the Bengals won't burn the top pick on a franchise quarterback. If that's what coach Marvin Lewis and company are thinking, we agree. The Bengals have a painful history of swinging and missing on first-round quarterbacks (David Klingler, Akili Smith), and Lewis knows that a bonus-baby signal-caller is by no means a prerequisite for winning in the modern NFL.
So if the Bengals are looking at guys like CB Terence Newman, why not slide down and pick up him or another quality defender, along with a couple of other picks?
The Cowboys are the best candidate in the top ten for such a trade. Moving down to slot number five leaves the Bengals high enough to pick up a top-flight defensive player, and the Cowboys and coach Bill Parcells are sufficiently daring to make the move. Remember this -- the Tuna's first order of business ten years ago in New England was to draft Drew Bledsoe with the first overall pick, and less than four years later the Pats were in the Super Bowl.
PICK 2, LIONS: WR Charles Rogers, Michigan State.
New Lions coach Steve Mariucci, whose demeanor falls somewhere between excited and Tourretic, let slip a few weeks back that Rogers will be a Lion. Unless someone else swings a trade with the Bengals for the sole purpose of snagging the large-but-speedy wideout, he'll be wearing Honolulu Blue soon.
PICK 3, TEXANS: WR Andre Johnson, Miami.
The Texans need skill-position players, and with RB Willis McGahee's knee implosion, there's no elite running back on the board. So the Texans will turn to Johnson, who'll give QB David Carr the field-stretching target that Houston simply didn't have in its inaugural season.
Don't be shocked if the Texans slide down a few spots, in order to enable a team to pluck DE Lee Suggs off the board in front of the Bears. Though the Vikes are sending up smoke signals that they plan to trade down, we wouldn't be shocked to learn that a discreet move to swipe Suggs from Chitown is in the works.
There's also a strong chance that the Texans will pull the trigger on Suggs.
PICK 4, BEARS: DE Terrell Suggs, Arizona State.
If Suggs is still on the board at spot four, he'll be in Chicago. The Bears are salivating for Suggs, who racked up an NCAA-record 24 sacks last season. If they get nervous about the possibility of the Texans trading out of number three to the Vikes or another team that is smitten with Suggs, the Bears could throw a fourth-or-fifth-round pick in Houston's direction in exchange for a flip-flop.
PICK 5, BENGALS (VIA PROJECTED TRADE): CB Terence Newman, Kansas State.
The Ravens drafted CB Chris McAlister in the first round the year before they won the Super Bowl, and McAlister currently wears the "F" label in Baltimore. Adding Newman would enable Kevin Kaesviharn to slide to safety, and it would give the Bengals a formidable one-two punch at corner, with Newman on one side and newcomer Tory James on the other. Other possibilities are DT Jimmy Kennedy or DT Dewayne Robertson, but the front seven already is sufficiently strong; adding Newman in the backfield could make the defense downright suffocating.
PICK 6, CARDINALS-TO-JETS TRADE: DT Jimmy Kennedy, Penn State.
The Cards have a bad recent history of high-level picks, culminating last year in a protracted holdout by DT Wendell Bryant. With multiple holes to fill, especially on offense, look for the Cards to pick up picks number 13 and 22 from the Jets, and for the Jets to pounce on the hulking Penn State defender.
PICK 7, VIKINGS: DT Dewayne Robertson, Kentucky.
Hopefully, the Vikings realize that their piss-poor pass coverage over the past few years traces not to the absence of top-flight defensive backs, but to the anemic pass rush that the front seven has mustered. Minny's ball-hawking defense in the late 1980s and early 1990s wasn't successful because of DB's like Todd Scott, Audray McMillian, and Carl Lee. Those Viking units generated picks-a-plenty because opposing quarterbacks were ducking-and-dodging guys like Chris Doleman, Keith Millard, Henry Thomas, and John Randle.
The 2003 Vikes have Chris Hovan and a rotating pack of turds on the D-line, so a guy like Robertson is key to bringing the defense back toward something that resembles respectability (but only if you squint real hard).
PICK 8, JAGUARS: Jordan Gross, OT, Utah.
With tackles Tony Boselli and Zach Wiegert gone in successive years to Houston, the Jags need to find a new anchor along their offensive line, and they'll get one in the form of Gross.
PICK 9, PANTHERS: Byron Leftwich, QB, Marshall.
With an unproven career backup who's working on a two-year deal (Jake Delhomme) and a grizzled veteran who won a "none of the above" camp battle last season (Rodney Peete), the Panthers are in need of a franchise quarterback. And they benefit from Leftwich's injury troubles in 2002, which will cause him to slide out of the top five, into the Panther's clutches.
PICK 10, RAVENS: Taylor Jacobs, WR, Florida.
Though guys like Mel(onhead) Kiper still have the Ravens plugging Iowa Eric Steinbach into Baltimore's hole at right tackle, Mel apparently pays little attention to NFL free agency moves, given that the Ravens signed free-agent RT Orlando Brown last week. Coach Brian Billick desperately needs to beef up his corps of receivers, and at the ten spot Jacobs isn't much of a reach.
PICK 11, SEAHAWKS: Marcus Trufant, CB, Washington State.
The Seahawks need to continue to bulk up their defense, and with multiple possibilities at pick 11 the scales tip in the direction of Trufant, a local boy who might help the 'Hawks get more asses in the seats.
PICK 12, RAMS: Kevin Williams, DT, Oklahoma State.
The Rams could trade down here, getting one of the top linebackers later while picking up a few extra choices. Another possibility is Trufant, if he's still on the board. If the Rams can't find a trade partner, don't be shocked if coach Mike Martz reaches for LB Boss Bailey or LB E.J. Henderson here.
PICK 13, CARDINALS (VIA PROJECTED TRADE): Rex Grossman, QB, Florida.
Trading out of the top ten puts the Cards in better position to burn their first pick on Grossman, who's regarded in some circles as having top-15 value -- even though most of the teams through 10 through 28 don't need a quarterback. The Cards do, and taking Grossman with the 13 pick would be a smart move, since the Pack could try to slide up and get in front of them at 22.
PICK 14, PATRIOTS: Eric Steinbach, OL, Iowa.
The Pats have spent their free-agent money on defense; the offensive line gets some attention in round one of the draft. Steinbach's ability to slide up and down the line allows the Pats to use him where he can help out the most.
PICK 15, CHARGERS: Jonathan Sullivan, DT, Georgia.
With two defensive cornerstones (Junior Seau and Rodney Harrison) getting run out of town, the Bolts need to find a fresh face to anchor the D for the next decade. Sullivan's reputation for high-intensity overachieving could help fill the locker-room void resulting from the departure of Seau.
PICK 16, CHIEFS: Chris Kelsay, DE, Nebraska.
The Chiefs could look elsewhere if they sign Vonnie Holliday, but for now Kelsay is the next best alternative to Hugh Douglas, who dissed the Chiefs for more coin in Florida.
PICK 17, SAINTS: Kwame Harris, OT, Stanford.
Notwithstanding the addition of Wayne Gandy, the trade of Kyle Turley to the Rams creates a major need on the offensive line, and Harris in time could get a shot at the left tackle slot in New Orleans, allowing Gandy to shift in time the right side of the line.
PICK 18, SAINTS: E.J. Henderson, LB, Maryland.
The Saints are always looking to beef up their defense, and Henderson would give them an immediate impact player, especially in the run game.
Another possibility here is for the Saints to slide out of the top 20. As long as they stay in front of the Eagles, the Saints could still get either Henderson or Georgia LB Boss Bailey.
PICK 19, PATRIOTS-TO-49ERS TRADE: Jerome McDougle, DE, Miami.
The Pats have been quiet in the offseason about their tailback situation, but they surely are interested in snagging an upgrade for aging RB Antowain Smith. By enabling the 49ers to grab McDougle in front of the Broncos, the Pats can snare an extra pick or two, while still getting their pick of tailbacks at 26.
Given their under-the-radar acquisition of LB Rosevelt Colvin and S Rondey Harrison on the same day earlier this month, there's no way to know for sure what the Pats will do, until after it already happens.
PICK 20, BRONCOS: Dennis Weathersby, CB, Oregon State.
The Broncos have lost three key contributors to their secondary in free agency (Denard Walker, Tyrone Poole, and Izell Reese), so they need to beef up the defensive backfield early/often in the 2003 draft. They'll be a bit skittish here, since 2000 first-rounder Willie Middlebrooks has been a bit of a bust. Still, the Horseheads need to do something/anything to prop up their pass coverage, especially since they've already made a huge investment in DT Daryl Gardener.
PICK 21, BROWNS: Boss Bailey, LB, Georgia.
With Jamir Miller, Earl Holmes, and Dwayne Rudd all jettisoned, the Browns must focus on the linebacking corps. Bailey gives them an instant impact player in an area of sudden need.
PICK 22, CARDINALS (VIA TRADE): William Joseph, DT, Miami.
If Joseph is still on the board, the possibility of snagging both him and Grossman in exchange for giving the Jets a shot at DT Jimmy Kennedy is a significant net gain for the Cards.
PICK 23, BILLS-TO-STEELERS TRADE: Mike Doss, S, Ohio State.
With the addition of DT Sam "I Am . . . Fat" Adams, there's no longer a need for the Bills to bulk up the defensive line in Round One. If one of the top linebackers is still on the board, the Bills could bite. Otherwise, look for G.M. Tom Donahoe to consider doing a little bidness with his old team, if the Steelers are willing to part with a third-rounder in order to jump the Colts for Doss, whom the Steelers desperately need.
PICK 24, COLTS: Rien Long, DT, Washington State.
Even with Brad Scioli sticking around, it'll be hard for Tony Dungy to pass on Long, who's a steal at the 24 hole.
PICK 25, GIANTS: Kenny Peterson, DT, Ohio State.
The G-men will take the best available DT at the 25 spot, and we think the top guy still on the board will be Peterson.
PICK 26, PATRIOTS (VIA PROJECTED TRADE): Justin Fargas, RB, USC.
Larry Johnson is also a possibility here, but the long string of underachieving Penn State running backs in the NFL might nudge the Pats toward Fargas, who made a big splash at the combine.
The final call here likely will depend much on the endorsement (or lack thereof) that QB Tom Brady gives to Fargas, since the two were teammates at Michigan through 1999. If Brady recalls Fargas as a turd, the chemistry-obsessed Pats won't want to bring them back together. In turn, if Brady gives this Son-of-a-Huggy the thumb's up, the duo could be reunited.
PICK 27, BILLS (VIA PROJECTED TRADE): RB Willis McGahee, Miami.
Though lame-duck head coach Gregg Williams needs to win now, G.M. Tom Donahoe will be making a pick for the not-to-distant future. Once upon a time, the Bills plucked a tailback who fell far on draft day (Thurman Thomas), and he merely helped propel the Bills to four straight Super Bowls.
PICK 28, TITANS: Kelley Washington, WR, Tennessee.
Washington, a former Volunteer, gives the Titans a replacement for Kevin Dyson, with a built-in hometown feel -- and that never hurts when part of the goal is to get folks to pay money to attend the games.
PICK 29, PACKERS: Dave Ragone, QB, Louisville.
The Pack prefer Grossman as the heir apparent to Brett Favre, but they'll likely have to settle for Ragone, whose stock is rising again. Another possibility would be to slide out of Round One, picking up Ragone a bit later. The real question is whether someone else wants to get back into the top round at that point -- and whether the price will be right.
PICK 30, EAGLES: Terry Pierce, LB, Kansas State.
Maybe a reach here, but the Birds need 'backers, given the loss of Barry Gardner, Levon Kirkland, and Shawn Barber. They'd love to land E.J. Henderson instead, and we wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles try to trade up -- especially since the front office is drawing heavy local criticism for sitting on its hands (thumbs vertical) throughout the offseason.
PICK 31, RAIDERS: Jeff Faine, C, Notre Dame.
With Barrett Robbins' status up in the air (at best), it's time for the Raiders to move on. Faine is a steal at pick 31.
PICK 32, RAIDERS: Kyle Boller, QB, Cal.
As we've previously reported, the Raiders would love to move up, in order to nab QB Carson Palmer or QB Byron Leftwich. Barring an unexpected development, they'll stick at number 30. Another strong possibility here is Miami RB Willis McGahee, if he's still on the board.
Finally a mock draft that predicts trades...4 of them in the 1st round
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