Reasons why the Home team in the divisonal round usually...

[Englishman31]

.....advances to the conference champinonship round.


[b:3459473626]#1 The Home team is usually the better team.[/b:3459473626]

No getting around this one, the Raiders have the [i:3459473626]better record [/i:3459473626]over the course of the season, deserve to enjoy the benefits of the home field and are rightly favored by odds makers for these reasons. Add to this that the Raiders beat the Jets head to head on national TV.

I could try to argue that the Jets are dramatically improved and have been as hot as any team in the NFL leading up to this game but we can all cherry pick statistics to back up our points of view and I don't see much point to going down that road. Case in point was the Colts fans last week giving their 10 reasons why the Colts were better than the Jets and why they, the Colts were the only "legitimate" playoff team of the two.

[b:3459473626]#2 Nicked up teams have a chance to get healthy.[/b:3459473626]

Very true IF your team is nicked up. It may the the first and last time in my lifetime that I will ever be able to say this in the second week of the payoffs about ANY team, but the Jets are almost eeriliy healthy. Even guys who were injured early on are now back AND back healthy (big difference that you Raiders may find out this week). In fact the only injuries seem to be to our Punter Turk (groin) and even though nobody is admitting it, it looks to me like John Hall (FG Kicker) has had something wrong for weeks.

However, if someone could guarantee me that my team would emerge completely healthy then I for one would take a wild card game every time. Especially if your team is improving on both sides of the ball (as the Jets seems to be) AND if you have essentially a rookie at QB where every game of experience counts large.

Normally the benefits of getting healthy by far outweigh the downside risk of getting stale or rusty, but that risk does exist I think. Please don't underestimate the potential for damage that can be done by players who try to come back too early from injuries. Curtis Martin and Sam Cowart were awful for the Jets earlier in the year for precisely this reason and it happens to some team in the playoffs every year.

[b:3459473626]#3 Home field advantage/Fan noise.[/b:3459473626]

Usually works to (a) Intimidate the opposing team, (b) Interfere with communications of the opposing QB, and (c) Can have the effect of intimidating the officiating into making some "homer" calls.

(a) Well, playing our 4th game in the black hole in a little over a year means the Jets are used to the black hole. I am sure it will be loud on Sunday but by and large it will be much the same as the Monday night game a few weeks back. The Browns would have had trouble with this one I think but this particular Jets team seems to really like being the underdog and in a bit of a strange way, I think the Jets actually like the whole over the top Raiders fans atmosphere thingy.

(b) Jets don't audible much at the line of scrimmage but this is still a concern.

(c) Again a concern but I think it is offset by the subconcious "get Al Davis" mentality that can exist in some officiating crews. Just as there is a bit of a "get Pat Riley" mentality in the NBA, I think there is some reason for Jet fans to hope that the normal home field officiating might be a wash in this game. And if it aint? Well they still have to play the game anyway.

[b:3459473626]#4 Extra week of scouting the opposition = better game plans.[/b:3459473626]

Normally a biggie, especially getting to see what the opposing coordinators actually did in the wild card week. In this case? I don't think so, these teams have played too often for there to be many surprises left in anyones bag of tricks. They both brought their best game (at that time) to the Monday night game because both of them were in tight divisional races. No hiding tricks for the playoffs there. So again, something that would normally be an advantage is probably not in this case because the teams know each other well. And remember the old saw about how hard it is to beat any team twice in the same season.

All in all, I beleive the Jets are underdogs and rightfully so. But they dangerous underdogs who are quite capable of biting a few more teams yet! Speaking as a long time Jets fan I HATE IT when the Jets are favorites and when they are being picked by the pundits. Last week was driving me nuts when all of those analysts were picking the Jets over the Colts. If you know anything about this team and their history, it is their capacity to break the hearts of their fans in games they are [b:3459473626][i:3459473626]*supposed* [/i:3459473626][/b:3459473626]to win that sets them apart from other teams.

I am also a great believer that you WANT your team to play and beat the best teams if you think your team is the best. I believe the Raiders Vs. Jets this weekend is the [i:3459473626]appropriate[/i:3459473626] test for the Jets and it comes at the [i:3459473626]appropriate time[/i:3459473626]. There are reasons to think that the Packers win might have been flawed and the Colts win was probably flawed, but as the Jets, you have beat the teams they put in front of you.

That said, I'll take underdog label gladly and leave the Raiders fans to worry about all those pundits picking their team for the superbowl.

P.S. I have $100 @ 500-1 on the Jets (when they were 2-5) so I may have jinxed my own team but they sure aint looking like 500-1 shots now.

[daraydaz]

Finally an intelligent post from a Jet fan. Granted HF is no guarantee of a playoff win, ask the Steelers last year, but I'd rather be home than going to Tenn or somewhere cold. Coupled with the fact that playoff teams with a first round bye are something like 39-9, which is like a 77% winning percentage and the much needed bye week, I like our chances.
I disagree that the Jets are now used to playing @ the HOT. We play at Arrowhead and Mile High every year but it doesn't make it any easier and you never really get used to it.
BTW, that was a ballsy bet, under any other circumstance I wish you well but not this weekend.

[RaiderBlitz]

Nice post for a change from a Jet fan. So I counter your points.
#1 I agree with it usually and this case is the better team that gets the bye but that doesn't make an automatic win. Teams that come into the play-offs winning usually continue their best play. I didn't see the colts playing that well. We where expecting to play the Jets or Cleveland.
#2 Bye weeks for any team is big this late in the season everyones a little banged up. But going over results of how teams did after a bye week the results are pretty much what you expected before. For us I think it was big to get rested.
#3 Home field. One we've been at home a month. No travel and thats big. Two the HOT's does make a difference. How much, it depends on the team a good team like yours maybe just not making a first down or jumping offsides. But in a close game it can be big. The Hots will be rockin' even more 'nothing like a team coming here thats already been been crowned the next SB team' to pump us up. I'll give it 4pts to our favor. As far as the Zebra's they can blow it anywhere anytime for any team. Lets just hope they don't blow the game for anyone. The less we know they are there the better for both teams.
#4 We didn't need an extra week to change from passing 60 times to running 60 times. I think both teams are to well coached to be taken off guard.
#5 Bet another 100 on the Raiders it will cover your losses :wink:

[Englishman31]

Hehehehe the commissioner will never let me into the hall of fame if I bet against my own team :wink: ...oops, wrong sport.

What about your returning injured players? If they are stars it is really hard for the coach to tell them to sit down. I have seen year after year people try and come back too early from surgery and cost their teams in big spots... (listen up Donovan McNabb)...

Anyhow, nobody is gonna know until game time, I just hope [i:e1a9be0c2e][b:e1a9be0c2e]both sides [/b:e1a9be0c2e][/i:e1a9be0c2e]stop with the cheap-shot talk and getting revenge for cheap shots talk because whoever wins does not need to move into the next round with any new injuries.

[daraydaz]

There is no way you will keep CWoodsom out of this game. He may not be a 100% but is still better than most cb's even when he's not at full strength. Tory James played well in his first game back against the Chefs and aside from some conditioning rust appears to be back at about 100%.
Remember, we played with 2nd and 3rd string db's during the stretch run and did better than expected so having James and Cwood back will be huge.
I don't anticipate too many cheap shots but I do anticipate a very physical game which I think favors the Raiders.

[crizpynutz]

I sincerely hope for zero cheap shots. After watching Willis possibly end his career the other night vs. Ohio State I would never want that to happen to anyone .... well, maybe there are a few guys, but usually no.

PS -- No one on the Jets.